Shaffrey, Prof Len
Research Scientist
-
University of Reading
Department of Meteorology
University of Reading
Earley Gate
Whiteknights Road
Reading
RG6 6ET
- https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X
- +44 118 378 5193
- http://ncas-cms.nerc.ac.uk/people/people_research.php?user_ID=63
Publications
- Vessey Alexander Frank; Hodges Kevin I.; Shaffrey Len C.; Day Jonathan J.; Supplementary material to “The Risk of Synoptic-Scale Arctic Cyclones to Shipping”. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-2222-supplement] Nov 2023
- Vessey Alexander Frank; Hodges Kevin I.; Shaffrey Len C.; Day Jonathan J.; The Risk of Synoptic-Scale Arctic Cyclones to Shipping. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-2023-2222] Nov 2023
- Wouters Jeroen; Schiemann R.; Shaffrey Len C.; Rare Event Simulation of Extreme European Winter Rainfall in an Intermediate Complexity Climate Model. Journal Of Advances In Modeling Earth Systems, 15 (4) , [doi:10.1029/2022ms003537] Apr 2023
- Wouters Jeroen; Schiemann R.; Shaffrey Len C.; Rare Event Simulation of Extreme European Winter Rainfall in an Intermediate Complexity Climate Model. Journal Of Advances In Modeling Earth Systems, 15 (4) , [doi:10.1029/2022ms003537] Apr 2023
- Wouters Jeroen; Schiemann R.; Shaffrey Len C.; Rare Event Simulation of Extreme European Winter Rainfall in an Intermediate Complexity Climate Model. Journal Of Advances In Modeling Earth Systems, 15 (4) , [doi:10.1029/2022ms003537] Apr 2023
- Kumar Dhirendra; Shaffrey Len C.; Dixon Richard; Bloomfield Hannah; Bates Paul; Hillier John; High-resolution loss modeling for European Windstorms. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu23-12391] Feb 2023
- Hillier John; Bloomfield Hannah; Garry Freya; Bates Paul; Shaffrey Len C.; Co-occurring British flood-wind events (1980-2080): Their anatomy & drivers. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7203] Feb 2023
- Sainsbury Elliott M.; Schiemann R.; Hodges Kevin I.; Baker Alexander J.; Shaffrey Len C.; Bhatia Kieran T.; Bourdin Stella; Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European post-tropical-cyclone risk?. Weather And Climate Dynamics, 3 (4) , 1359--1379, [doi:10.5194/wcd-3-1359-2022] Nov 2022
- Wouters Jeroen; Schiemann R.; Shaffrey Len C.; Rare event simulation of extreme European winter rainfall in an intermediate complexity climate model. [doi:10.1002/essoar.10512796.1] Nov 2022
- Sainsbury Elliott M.; Schiemann Reinhard K. H.; Hodges Kevin I.; Baker Alexander J.; Shaffrey Len C.; Bhatia Kieran T.; Why Do Some Post-Tropical Cyclones Impact Europe?. Monthly Weather Review, 150 (10) , 2553--2571, [doi:10.1175/mwr-d-22-0111.1] Oct 2022
- Vessey Alexander F.; Hodges Kevin I.; Shaffrey Len C.; Day Jonathan J.; The composite development and structure of intense synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones. Weather And Climate Dynamics, 3 (3) , 1097–1112, [doi:10.5194/wcd-3-1097-2022] Sep 2022
- Sainsbury Elliott M.; Schiemann R.; Hodges Kevin I.; Baker Alexander J.; Shaffrey Len C.; Bhatia Kieran T.; Bourdin Stella; Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European Post-Tropical Cyclone risk?. [doi:10.5194/wcd-2022-46] Aug 2022
- Sainsbury Elliott M.; Schiemann R.; Hodges Kevin I.; Baker Alexander J.; Shaffrey Len C.; Bhatia Kieran T.; Bourdin Stella; Supplementary material to "Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European Post-Tropical Cyclone risk?". [doi:10.5194/wcd-2022-46-supplement] Aug 2022
- Sainsbury Elliott M.; Schiemann Reinhard K. H.; Hodges Kevin I.; Baker Alexander J.; Shaffrey Len C.; Bhatia Kieran T.; What Governs the Interannual Variability of Recurving North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones?. Journal Of Climate, 35 (12) , 3627--3641, [doi:10.1175/jcli-d-21-0712.1] Jun 2022
- Vessey Alexander F.; Hodges Kevin I.; Shaffrey Len C.; Day Jonathan J.; The composite development and structure of intense synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-2022-351] May 2022
- Dong Buwen; Sutton R.T.; Shaffrey Len; Harvey Benjamin J.; Recent decadal weakening of the summer Eurasian westerly jet attributable to anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Nature Communications, 13 (1) , [doi:10.1038/s41467-022-28816-5] Mar 2022
- Sainsbury Elliott M.; Schiemann R.; Hodges Kevin; Baker Alexander J.; Shaffrey Len C.; Bhatia Kieran; Why do some Recurving Tropical Cyclones Impact Europe as Post-Tropical Cyclones?. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2456] Mar 2022
- Schiemann R.; Hatcher Rosalyn; Lawrence Bryan; Lister Grenville; Shaffrey Len C.; Planning for a Large Ensemble based on the HadGEM3 climate model. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7280] Mar 2022
- Dong Buwen; Sutton R.T.; Shaffrey Len C.; Harvey Benjamin J.; Recent decadal weakening of the summer Eurasian westerly jet attributable to anthropogenic aerosol emissions. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9731] Mar 2022
- Bresson H.; Hodges K. I.; Shaffrey Len C.; Zappa G.; Schiemann R.; The Response of Northern Hemisphere Polar Lows to Climate Change in a 25~km High-Resolution Global Climate Model. Journal Of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127 (4) , [doi:10.1029/2021jd035610] Feb 2022
- Harvey Ben; Shaffrey Len; How will climate change impact North Atlantic storms?. Weather, 76 (10) , 329--329, [doi:10.1002/wea.4075] Sep 2021
- Vessey Alexander; Hodges Kevin; Shaffrey Len C.; Day Jonathan; Quantifying Arctic Storm Risk in a Changing Climate. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16077] Mar 2021
- Baker L. H.; Shaffrey Len; Hawkins Ed; Has the risk of a 1976 north-west European summer drought and heatwave event increased since the 1970s because of climate change?. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society, 147 (741) , 4143-4162, [doi:10.1002/qj.4172] 2021
- Harvey Benjamin J.; Cook P.; Shaffrey Len C.; Schiemann R.; The Response of the Northern Hemisphere Storm Tracks and Jet Streams to Climate Change in the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 Climate Models. Journal Of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125 (23) , [doi:10.1029/2020jd032701] Dec 2020
- Sainsbury Elliott M.; Schiemann R.; Hodges Kevin I.; Shaffrey Len C.; Baker Alexander J.; Bhatia Kieran T.; How Important Are Post-Tropical Cyclones for European Windstorm Risk?. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (18) , [doi:10.1029/2020gl089853] Sep 2020
- Ossó Albert; Sutton Rowan; Shaffrey Len; Dong Buwen; Development, Amplification, and Decay of Atlantic/European Summer Weather Patterns Linked to Spring North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures. Journal Of Climate, 33 (14) , 5939--5951, [doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19-0613.1] Jul 2020
- Dong B.-W.; Sutton Rowan T.; Shaffrey Len; Wilcox Laura J.; Attribution of 2012 extreme climate events: does air-sea interaction matter?. Climate Dynamics, 55 (5-6) , 1225--1245, [doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05321-3] Jun 2020
- Vessey Alexander; Hodges Kevin; Shaffrey Len C.; Day Jonathan; An Inter-Comparison of Arctic Synoptic Scale Storms between Four Global Reanalysis Datasets. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-15778] Mar 2020
- Shaffrey Len C.; Bresson Helene; Hodges Kevin; Zappa Giuseppe; The response of Northern Hemisphere polar lows to2climate change in a 25 km high-resolution global climate model. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-19488] Mar 2020
- Harvey Benjamin J.; Cook Peter; Shaffrey Len C.; Schiemann R.; The response of the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks and jetstreams to climate change in the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 climate models. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-19711] Mar 2020
- Halliday Oliver; Shaffrey Len C.; Tsaknias Dimosthenis; Cloke Hannah; Siddaway Alexander; Understanding the relationship between extremes of wind and inland flooding in the UK. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20230] Mar 2020
- Dixon Richard; Franklin Sam; Shaffrey Len C.; Clifford Debbie; Climate change, historical data and catastrophe modelling. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-20647] Mar 2020
- Baker Alexander J.; Schiemann Reinhard; Hodges Kevin I.; Demory Marie-Estelle; Mizielinski Matthew S.; Roberts Malcolm J.; Shaffrey Len C.; Strachan Jane; Vidale Pier Luigi; Enhanced Climate Change Response of Wintertime North Atlantic Circulation, Cyclonic Activity, and Precipitation in a 25-km-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model. Journal Of Climate, 32 (22) , 7763--7781, [doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19-0054.1] Nov 2019
- Parker Tess; Woollings Tim; Weisheimer A.; O'Reilly Christopher H.; Baker Laura; Shaffrey Len C.; Seasonal Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation From a Jet Stream Perspective. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (16) , 10159--10167, [doi:10.1029/2019gl084402] Aug 2019
- Hunt Kieran M. R.; Turner Andrew G.; Shaffrey Len C.; Falling Trend of Western Disturbances in Future Climate Simulations. Journal Of Climate, 32 (16) , 5037--5051, [doi:10.1175/jcli-d-18-0601.1] Jul 2019
- Ossó Albert; Shaffrey Len; Dong Buwen; Sutton Rowan; Impact of air–sea coupling on Northern Hemisphere summer climate and the monsoon–desert teleconnection. Climate Dynamics [doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04846-6] Jun 2019
- Hunt Kieran M. R.; Turner Andrew G.; Shaffrey Len C.; Representation of Western Disturbances in CMIP5 Models. Journal Of Climate, 32 (7) , 1997--2011, [doi:10.1175/jcli-d-18-0420.1] Mar 2019
- Hoke Winfried; Swierczynski Tina; Braesicke Peter; Lochte Karin; Shaffrey Len C.; Drews Martin; Gregow Hilppa; Ludwig Ralf; Nilsen Jan Even Øie; Palazzi Elisa; Sannino G.; Smedsrud Lars Henrik; ECRA network; The European Climate Research Alliance (ECRA): Collaboration from bottom-up. Advances In Geosciences, 46, 1--10, [doi:10.5194/adgeo-46-1-2019] Jan 2019
- Priestley Matthew D. K.; Dacre Helen F.; Shaffrey Len C.; Hodges Kevin I.; Pinto Joaquim G.; The role of serial European windstorm clustering for extreme seasonal losses as determined from multi-centennial simulations of high-resolution global climate model data. Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences, 18 (11) , 2991--3006, [doi:10.5194/nhess-18-2991-2018] Nov 2018
- Bloomfield Hannah; Shaffrey Len; Hodges K. I.; Vidale P. L.; A critical assessment of the long-term changes in the wintertime surface Arctic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere storminess in the ERA20C reanalysis. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (9) , 094004, [doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aad5c5] Aug 2018
- Baker L. H.; Shaffrey Len C.; Sutton R.T.; Weisheimer A.; Scaife A. A.; An Intercomparison of Skill and Overconfidence/Underconfidence of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in Multimodel Seasonal Forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (15) , 7808--7817, [doi:10.1029/2018gl078838] Aug 2018
- Schiemann R.; Vidale Pier Luigi; Shaffrey Len C.; Johnson Stephanie J.; Roberts Malcolm J.; Demory Marie-Estelle; Mizielinski Matthew S.; Strachan Jane; Mean and extreme precipitation over European river basins better simulated in a 25\ km AGCM. Hydrology And Earth System Sciences, 22 (7) , 3933--3950, [doi:10.5194/hess-22-3933-2018] Jul 2018
- Priestley Matthew D. K.; Dacre Helen F.; Shaffrey Len C.; Hodges Kevin I.; Pinto Joaquim G.; The role of European windstorm clustering for extreme seasonal losses as determined from a high resolution climate model. Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences Discussions 1--28, [doi:10.5194/nhess-2018-165] Jun 2018
- Thornhill Gillian D.; Ryder Claire L.; Highwood Eleanor J.; Shaffrey Len C.; Johnson Ben T.; The effect of South American biomass burning aerosol emissions on the regional climate. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 18 (8) , 5321--5342, [doi:10.5194/acp-18-5321-2018] Apr 2018
- Hunt Kieran M. R.; Turner Andrew G.; Shaffrey Len C.; Extreme Daily Rainfall in Pakistan and North India: Scale Interactions, Mechanisms, and Precursors. Monthly Weather Review, 146 (4) , 1005--1022, [doi:10.1175/mwr-d-17-0258.1] Apr 2018
- Hunt Kieran M. R.; Turner Andrew G.; Shaffrey Len C.; The evolution, seasonality and impacts of western disturbances. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society [doi:10.1002/qj.3200] Jan 2018
- Schiemann R.; Vidale Pier Luigi; Shaffrey Len C.; Johnson Stephanie J.; Roberts Malcolm J.; Demory Marie-Estelle; Mizielinski Matthew S.; Strachan Jane; Mean and extreme precipitation over European river basins better simulated in a 25km AGCM. Hydrology And Earth System Sciences Discussions 1--26, [doi:10.5194/hess-2017-732] Jan 2018
- Schiemann R.; Vidale P. L.; Shaffrey Len C.; Johnson Stephanie J.; Roberts Malcolm J.; Demory Marie-Estelle; Mizielinski Matthew S.; Strachan Jane; Mean and extreme precipitation over European river basins better simulated in a 25km AGCM. [doi:10.5194/hess-2017-732-supplement] Jan 2018
- Ossó Albert; Sutton R.T.; Shaffrey Len; Dong Buwen; Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences, 115 (1) , 59--63, [doi:10.1073/pnas.1713146114] Dec 2017
- Baker L. H.; Shaffrey Len C.; Scaife A. A.; Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation. International Journal Of Climatology [doi:10.1002/joc.5382] Dec 2017
- Thornhill Gillian D.; Ryder Claire; Highwood Eleanor J.; Shaffrey Len C.; Johnson Ben T.; The Effect of South American Biomass Burning Aerosol Emissions on the Regional Climate. [doi:10.5194/acp-2017-953] Nov 2017
- Thornhill Gillian D.; Ryder Claire; Highwood Eleanor J.; Shaffrey Len C.; Johnson Ben T.; The Effect of South American Biomass Burning Aerosol Emissions on the Regional Climate. [doi:10.5194/acp-2017-953-supplement] Nov 2017
- Dong Buwen; Sutton Rowan T.; Shaffrey Len; Klingaman Nicholas P.; Attribution of Forced Decadal Climate Change in Coupled and Uncoupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model Experiments. Journal Of Climate, 30 (16) , 6203–6223, [doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0578.1] Aug 2017
- Wilcox Laura J.; Yiou Pascal; Hauser Mathias; Lott Fraser C.; van Oldenborgh Geert Jan; Colfescu I.; Dong Buwen; Hegerl Gabi; Shaffrey Len; Sutton Rowan; Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer of 2012 to climate change. Climate Dynamics [doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3822-7] Jul 2017
- Priestley Matthew D. K.; Pinto Joaquim G.; Dacre Helen F.; Shaffrey Len C.; The role of cyclone clustering during the stormy winter of 2013/2014. Weather, 72 (7) , 187–192, [doi:10.1002/wea.3025] Jul 2017
- Robson Jon; Polo Irene; Hodson D. L. R.; Stevens D. P.; Shaffrey Len C.; Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model. Climate Dynamics [doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3649-2] Jun 2017
- Schiemann Reinhard; Demory Marie-Estelle; Shaffrey Len C.; Strachan Jane; Vidale Pier Luigi; Mizielinski Matthew S.; Roberts Malcolm J.; Matsueda Mio; Wehner Michael F.; Jung Thomas; Corrigendum. Journal Of Climate, 30 (12) , 4777--4778, [doi:10.1175/jcli-d-17-0091.1] Jun 2017
- Dong Buwen; Sutton Rowan T.; Shaffrey Len; Erratum to: Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Climate Dynamics, 49 (11-12) , 4313--4314, [doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3590-4] Mar 2017
- Schiemann Reinhard; Demory Marie-Estelle; Shaffrey Len C.; Strachan Jane; Vidale Pier Luigi; Mizielinski Matthew S.; Roberts Malcolm J.; Matsueda Mio; Wehner Michael F.; Jung Thomas; The Resolution Sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere Blocking in Four 25-km Atmospheric Global Circulation Models. Journal Of Climate, 30 (1) , 337–358, [doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0100.1] Jan 2017
- Priestley Matthew D. K.; Pinto Joaquim G.; Dacre Helen F.; Shaffrey Len C.; Rossby wave breaking, the upper level jet, and serial clustering of extratropical cyclones in western Europe. Geophysical Research Letters, 44 (1) , 514–521, [doi:10.1002/2016gl071277] Jan 2017
- Dong Buwen; Sutton Rowan; Shaffrey Len; Wilcox Laura J; The 2015 European Heat Wave. Bulletin Of The American Meteorological Society, 97 (12) , S57–S62, [doi:10.1175/bams-d-16-0140.1] Dec 2016
- Kennedy Daniel; Parker Tess; Woollings Tim; Harvey Benjamin; Shaffrey Len; The response of high-impact blocking weather systems to climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (13) , 7250–7258, [doi:10.1002/2016gl069725] Jul 2016
- Pinto Joaquim G.; Ulbrich Sven; Economou Theodoros; Stephenson David B.; Karremann Melanie K.; Shaffrey Len C.; Robustness of serial clustering of extratropical cyclones to the choice of tracking method. Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology And Oceanography, 68, [doi:10.3402/tellusa.v68.32204] Jul 2016
- Hawcroft Matt; Dacre Helen; Forbes Richard; Hodges Kevin; Shaffrey Len; Stein Thorwald; Using satellite and reanalysis data to evaluate the representation of latent heating in extratropical cyclones in a climate model. Climate Dynamics [doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3204-6] Jun 2016
- Dong Buwen; Sutton Rowan T.; Shaffrey Len; Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Climate Dynamics [doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3158-8] May 2016
- Shaffrey Len; Hodson D.; Robson J.; Stevens D. P.; Hawkins E.; Polo I.; Stevens I.; Sutton R. T.; Lister G.; Iwi A.; Smith D.; Stephens A.; Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation. Climate Dynamics, 48 (1-2) , 297–311, [doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3075-x] Apr 2016
- Tous M.; Zappa G.; Romero R.; Shaffrey Len; Vidale P. L.; Projected changes in medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution global climate model. Climate Dynamics [doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2941-2] Dec 2015
- Petrie Ruth E.; Shaffrey Len C.; Sutton Rowan T.; Atmospheric Impact of Arctic Sea Ice Loss in a Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Simulation*. Journal Of Climate, 28 (24) , 9606–9622, [doi:10.1175/jcli-d-15-0316.1] Dec 2015
- Hawcroft Matthew K.; Shaffrey Len C.; Hodges Kevin I.; Dacre Helen F.; Can climate models represent the precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones?. Climate Dynamics [doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2863-z] Oct 2015
- Economou T.; Stephenson D. B.; Pinto J. G.; Shaffrey Len; Zappa G.; Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones in a multi-model ensemble of historical and future simulations. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (693) , 3076–3087, [doi:10.1002/qj.2591] Aug 2015
- Kuhlbrodt T.; Gregory J. M.; Shaffrey Len; A process-based analysis of ocean heat uptake in an AOGCM with an eddy-permitting ocean component. Climate Dynamics [doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2534-0] Mar 2015
- Harvey B. J.; Shaffrey Len; Woollings T. J.; Deconstructing the climate change response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime storm tracks. Climate Dynamics [doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2510-8] Feb 2015
- Petrie R. E.; Shaffrey Len; Sutton R.T.; Atmospheric response in summer linked to recent Arctic sea ice loss. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society, 141 (691) , 2070–2076, [doi:10.1002/qj.2502] Jan 2015
- Zappa Giuseppe; Hawcroft Matthew K.; Shaffrey Len; Black Emily; Brayshaw David J.; Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models. Climate Dynamics [doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2426-8] Dec 2014
- Dong Buwen; Sutton Rowan; Shaffrey Len; The 2013 hot, dry summer in Western Europe. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95,, S84-S88, [doi:10.1175/1520-0477-95.9.S1.1] Sep 2014
- Roberts J. F.; Champion A. J.; Dawkins L. C.; Hodges K. I.; Shaffrey Len; Stephenson D. B.; Stringer M. A.; Thornton H. E.; Youngman B. D.; The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979 to 2012. Natural Hazards And Earth System Science, 14 (9) , 2487–2501, [doi:10.5194/nhess-14-2487-2014] Sep 2014
- Rhodes R. I.; Shaffrey Len; Gray S. L.; Can reanalyses represent extreme precipitation over England and Wales?. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society n/a–n/a, [doi:10.1002/qj.2418] Aug 2014
- Pearson K. J.; Shaffrey Len; Methven J.; Hodges K. I.; Can a climate model reproduce extreme regional precipitation events over England and Wales?. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society n/a–n/a, [doi:10.1002/qj.2428] Aug 2014
- Roberts J. F.; Champion A. J.; Dawkins L. C.; Hodges K. I.; Shaffrey Len C.; Stephenson D. B.; Stringer M. A.; Thornton H. E.; Youngman B. D.; The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979\–2012. Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2 (3) , 2011--2048, [doi:10.5194/nhessd-2-2011-2014] Mar 2014
- Schiemann R.; Demory Marie-Estelle; Shaffrey Len; Strachan J; Vidale P. L.; Mizielinski M. S.; Roberts M. J.; The sensitivity of the Walker Circulation and Maritime Continent precipitation to climate model resolution. Climate Dynamics, 42, 2455-2468, [doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1997-0] 2014
- Zappa G.; Masato G; Shaffrey Len; Woollings T.; Hodges KI; Linking Northern Hemisphere blocking and storm track biases in the CMIP5 climate models. Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (1) , 135–139, [doi:10.1002/2013gl058480] Jan 2014
- Harvey Benjamin J.; Shaffrey Len; Woollings T.; Equator-to-pole temperature differences and the extra-tropical storm track responses of the CMIP5 climate models. Climate Dynamics [doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1883-9] Jul 2013
- Marathayil D.; Turner A.G.; Shaffrey Len; Levine Richard C.; Systematic winter SST biases in the northern Arabian Sea in HiGEM and the CMIP3 models. Environmental Research Letters, 8 (1) , [doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014028] Feb 2013
- Guo L.; Highwood E. J.; Shaffrey Len; Turner A.G.; The effect of regional changes in anthropogenic aerosols on rainfall of the East Asian Summer Monsoon. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 13 (3) , 1521–1534, [doi:10.5194/acp-13-1521-2013] Feb 2013
- Zappa Giuseppe; Shaffrey Len; Hodges KI; The ability of CMIP5 models to simulate North Atlantic extratropical cyclones. Journal Of Climate [doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00501.1] 2013
- Zappa Giuseppe; Shaffrey Len; Hodges K. I.; Sansom P. G.; Stephenson D. B.; A multi-model assessment of future projections of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models. Journal Of Climate [doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00573.1] 2013
- Ho Chun Kit; Hawkins Ed; Shaffrey Len; Brocker Jochen; Hermanson Leon; Murphy J. M.; Smith Doug M.; Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: The role of ensemble dispersion.. Geophys. Res. Lett, 40, 5770-5775, [doi:10.1002/2013GL057630] 2013
- Keeley S. P. E.; Sutton R.T.; Shaffrey Len; The impact of North Atlantic sea surface temperature errors on the simulation of North Atlantic European region climate. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society, 138 (668) , 1774--1783, [doi:10.1002/qj.1912] OCT 2012 2012
- Ho Chun Kit; Hawkins Ed; Shaffrey Len; Underwood Fiona M.; Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions. Climate Dynamics Oct 2012
- Woollings T.; Harvey Benjamin J.; Zahn M.; Shaffrey Len; On the role of the ocean in projected atmospheric stability changes in the Atlantic polar low region. Geophysical Research Letters [doi:10.1029/2012GL054016] 2012
- Hawcroft M. K.; Shaffrey Len; Hodges K. I.; Dacre H. F.; How much Northern Hemisphere precipitation is associated with extratropical cyclones?. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L24809, [doi:10.1029/2012GL053866] 2012
- Harvey Benjamin J.; Shaffrey Len; Woollings T.; Zappa Giuseppe; Hodges K. I.; How large are projected 21st century storm track changes?. Geophysical Research Letters [doi:10.1029/2012GL052873] 2012
- Lloyd-Hughes Benjamin; Shaffrey Len; Vidale Pier Luigi; Arnell Nigel W.; An evaluation of the spatiotemporal structure of large-scale European drought within the HiGEM climate model. International Journal Of Climatology [doi:10.1002/joc.3570] 2012
- Balan Sarojini B.; Gregory J. M.; Tailleux R.; Bigg G. R.; Blaker A. T.; Cameron D. R.; Edwards N. R.; Megann A. P.; Shaffrey Len; Sinha B.; High frequency variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Ocean Science, 7, 471-486, [doi:10.5194/os-7-471-2011] 2011
- Tero Gulilat De; Toniazzo T.; Shaffrey Len; (ed: Williams Charles J. R.; Kniveton Dominic R.; )
Ethiopian rainfall in climate models
In African climate and climate change: physical, social and political perspective, pages 51--70, Springer, 2011 - Catto J. L.; Shaffrey Len; Hodges K. I.; Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones in a warming climate in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model. Journal Of Climate, 24 (20) , 5336-5352, [doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4181.1] 2011
- Toniazzo T.; Abel Steve J.; Wood Robert; Mechoso C. R.; Allen Grant; Shaffrey Len; Large-scale and synoptic meteorology in the south-east Pacific during the observations campaign VOCALS-REx in austral Spring 2008. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 11 (10) , 4977--5009, 2011
- Slingo J. M.; Bates Kevin; Nikiforakis Nikos; Piggott Matthew; Roberts Malcolm; Shaffrey Len; Stevens Ian; Vidale P-L; Weller H; Developing the next-generation climate system models: challenges and achievements. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical And Engineering Sciences, 367 (1890) , 815--831, [doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0207] 2009
- Challinor Andrew; Osborne T. M.; Morse Andy; Shaffrey Len; Wheeler T.R.; Weller H; Vidale P-L; Methods and resources for climate impacts research: achieving synergy. Bulletin Of The American Meteorological Society, 90 (6) , 836--848, [doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2403.1] 2009
- Keeley S. P. E.; Sutton R.T.; Shaffrey Len; Does the North Atlantic Oscillation show unusual persistence on intraseasonal timescales?. Geophysical Research Letters, 36 (L22706) , [doi:10.1029/2009GL040367] 2009
- Roberts Malcolm J.; Clayton A.; Demory Marie-Estelle; Donners John; Vidale P-L; Norton Warwick; Shaffrey Len; Stevens D. P.; Stevens I.; Wood R. A.; Slingo Anthony; Impact of Resolution on the Tropical Pacific Circulation in a Matrix of Coupled Models. Journal Of Climate, 22 (10) , 2541--2556, [doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2537.1] 2009
- Shaffrey Len; Stevens I.; Norton Warwick; Roberts M. J.; Vidale P-L; Harle J. D.; Jrrar A.; Stevens D. P.; Woodage Margaret Jean; Demory Marie-Estelle; Donners John; Clark D. B.; Clayton A.; Cole Jeffrey; Wilson Simon Spencer; Connolley W. M.; Davies T. M.; Iwi A. M.; Johns T. C.; King J. C.; New A. L.; Slingo J. M.; Slingo Anthony; Steenman-Clark L.; Martin G. M.; U.K. HiGEM: The New U.K. High-Resolution Global Environment Model - Model Description and Basic Evaluation. Journal Of Climate, 22 (8) , 1861--1896, [doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2508.1] 2009
- Shaffrey Len; Sutton R.T.; Bjerknes Compensation and the Decadal Variability of the Energy Transports in a Coupled Climate Model. Journal Of Climate, 19 (7) , 1167--1167, [doi:10.1175/JCLI3652.1] 2006
- Shaffrey Len; Hoskins B. J.; Lu R.; The relationship between the North American summer monsoon, the Rocky Mountains and the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone in HadAM3. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society, 128 (586) , 2607--2622, [doi:10.1256/qj.01.145] 2002
Achievements / Science Highlights
- Decadal predictions for CMIP5 using the HiGEM high-resolution coupled climate model, February 2011
- Decadal forecasts for CMIP5 using the HiGEM high-resolution coupled climate model, February 2012