NCASWeb Dr Antje Weisheimer

Weisheimer, Dr Antje

Senior NCAS Research Fellow

University of Oxford

Atmospheric Physics

Clarendon Laboratory

Parks Road

Oxford

OX1 3PU

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7231-6974

@AntjeWeisheimer

antje.weisheimer@ncas.ac.uk

+44 186 528 2441

https://www2.physics.ox.ac.uk/contacts/people/weisheimer

Publications

Senan Retish; Balmaseda Magdalena A.; Molteni Franco; Stockdale T. N.; Weisheimer A.; Johnson Stephanie; Roberts Christopher D.; The Relative Role of Indian and Pacific Tropical Heating as Seasonal Predictability Drivers for the North Atlantic Oscillation. Journal Of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 129 (18) , [doi:10.1029/2024jd041233] Sep 2024
Patterson Matthew; Befort Daniel J.; O'Reilly Christopher H.; Weisheimer A.; Drivers of the ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecast for the hot and dry European summer of 2022. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society, 150 (765) , 4969–4986, [doi:10.1002/qj.4851] Sep 2024
Baker L. H.; Shaffrey Len C.; Johnson S. J.; Weisheimer A.; Understanding the Intermittency of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (15) , [doi:10.1029/2024gl108472] Jul 2024
Main Lucy; Sparrow S.; Weisheimer A.; Wright Matthew; Skilful probabilistic medium‐range precipitation and temperature forecasts over Vietnam for the development of a future dengue early warning system. Meteorological Applications, 31 (4) , [doi:10.1002/met.2222] Jul 2024
Wright Matthew; Weisheimer A.; Woollings Tim; Multi-decadal skill variability in predicting the spatial patterns of ENSO events. [doi:10.22541/au.171900962.24338126/v1] Jun 2024
Wright Matthew; Weisheimer A.; Woollings T.; Multi‐Decadal Skill Variability in Predicting the Spatial Patterns of ENSO Events. Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (12) , [doi:10.1029/2023gl107971] Jun 2024
Wright Matthew; Weisheimer A.; Woollings T.; Multi‐Decadal Skill Variability in Predicting the Spatial Patterns of ENSO Events. Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (12) , [doi:10.1029/2023gl107971] Jun 2024
Leach Nicholas; Roberts Christopher D.; Aengenheyster Matthias; Heathcote Daniel; Mitchell Dann M.; Thompson Vikki; Palmer Tim; Weisheimer A.; Allen Myles R.; Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts. Nature Communications, 15 (1) , [doi:10.1038/s41467-024-48280-7] May 2024
Ermis Shirin; Leach Nicholas; Lott F. C.; Sparrow S.; Weisheimer A.; Event attribution of a midlatitude windstorm using ensemble weather forecasts. Environmental Research: Climate, 3 (3) , 035001, [doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ad4200] May 2024
Leach Nicholas; Ermis Shirin; Vashti Ayim Olivia; Sparrow S.; Lott F. C.; Zhou Linjing; Hope Pandora; Mitchell Dann M.; Weisheimer A.; Allen Myles; Towards an operational forecast-based attribution system - beyond isolated events. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20081] Mar 2024
Doane‐Solomon Robert; Befort Daniel J.; Camp Joanne; Hodges Kevin; Weisheimer A.; The link between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and ENSO in seasonal forecasts. Atmospheric Science Letters, 25 (1) , [doi:10.1002/asl.1190] Sep 2023
Doane‐Solomon Robert; Befort Daniel J.; Camp Joanne; Hodges Kevin; Weisheimer A.; The link between North Atlantic tropical cyclones and ENSO in seasonal forecasts. Atmospheric Science Letters, 25 (1) , [doi:10.1002/asl.1190] Sep 2023
Di Capua Giorgia; Coumou Dim; van den Hurk Bart; Weisheimer A.; Turner A.G.; Donner Reik V.; Validation of boreal summer tropical–extratropical causal links in seasonal forecasts. Weather And Climate Dynamics, 4 (3) , 701–723, [doi:10.5194/wcd-4-701-2023] Aug 2023
Sharmila S.; Hendon H.; Alves O.; Weisheimer A.; Balmaseda M.; Contrasting El Niño–La Niña Predictability and Prediction Skill in 2-Year Reforecasts of the Twentieth Century. Journal Of Climate, 36 (5) , 1269--1285, [doi:10.1175/jcli-d-22-0028.1] Mar 2023
Brocker Jochen; Charlton‐Perez A. J.; Weisheimer A.; A statistical perspective on the signal–to–noise paradox. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society [doi:10.1002/qj.4440] Feb 2023
Tietsche Steffen; Vitart Frederic; Mayer Michael; Weisheimer A.; Balmaseda Magdalena; Underestimation of Arctic warming trends in sub-seasonal forecasts. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14141] Feb 2023
Hempel Tim; Weisheimer A.; Palmer Tim; The seasonal teleconnections of the Indian Ocean Dipole to the North Atlantic region. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5665] Feb 2023
Domeisen Daniela I. V.; Eltahir Elfatih A. B.; Fischer Erich M.; Knutti Reto; Perkins-Kirkpatrick Sarah E.; Schär Christoph; Seneviratne Sonia I.; Weisheimer A.; Wernli Heini; Prediction and projection of heatwaves. Nature Reviews Earth {\&}Amp$\Mathsemicolon$ Environment, 4 (1) , 36--50, [doi:10.1038/s43017-022-00371-z] Dec 2022
Patterson Matthew; Weisheimer A.; Befort Daniel J.; O'Reilly Christopher H.; The strong role of external forcing in seasonal forecasts of European summer temperature. Environmental Research Letters, 17 (10) , 104033, [doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac9243] Oct 2022
Befort Daniel J.; Brunner L.; Borchert L. F.; O{'}Reilly C. H.; Mignot J.; Ballinger Andrew; Hegerl Gabriele C; Murphy J. M.; Weisheimer A.; Combination of Decadal Predictions and Climate Projections in Time: Challenges and Potential Solutions. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (15) , [doi:10.1029/2022gl098568] Aug 2022
Leach Nicholas; Roberts Christopher; Heathcote Daniel; Mitchell Dann; Thompson Vikki; Palmer Tim; Weisheimer A.; Allen Myles; Reliable heatwave attribution based on successful operational weather forecasts. [doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1868647/v1] Aug 2022
Di Capua Giorgia; Coumou Dim; van den Hurk Bart; Weisheimer A.; Turner A.G.; Donner Reik V; Validation of boreal summer tropical-extratropical causal links in seasonal forecasts. [doi:10.5194/wcd-2022-48] Aug 2022
Di Capua Giorgia; Coumou Dim; van den Hurk Bart; Weisheimer A.; Turner A.G.; Donner Reik V; Supplementary material to "Validation of boreal summer tropical-extratropical causal links in seasonal forecasts". [doi:10.5194/wcd-2022-48-supplement] Aug 2022
Fung Fai; Goddard Christopher; McSweeney Carol; Crocker Tom; Matte Dominic; Ballinger Andrew; Hegerl Gabi; O'Reilly Christopher H.; Weisheimer A.; van der Wiel Karin; Wilcke Renate; Building storylines for applications: what have we learned in the EUCP project?. [doi:10.5194/ems2022-444] Jun 2022
Weisheimer A.; Balmaseda Magdalena A.; Stockdale T. N.; Mayer Michael; Sharmila S.; Hendon Harry; Alves Oscar; Variability of ENSO Forecast Skill in 2-Year Global Reforecasts Over the 20th Century. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (10) , [doi:10.1029/2022gl097885] May 2022
Patterson Matthew; Weisheimer A.; Befort Daniel J.; O'Reilly Christopher H.; The strong role of external forcing in seasonal forecasts of European summer temperatures. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1793] Mar 2022
Leach Nicholas; Roberts Chris; Palmer Tim; Allen Myles R.; Weisheimer A.; Towards forecast-based attribution of isolated extreme events: perturbed initial condition simulations of the Pacific Northwest heatwave. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5949] Mar 2022
Hempel Tim; Weisheimer A.; Palmer Tim; The seasonal teleconnections of the Indian Ocean Dipole to the North Atlantic region. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7631] Mar 2022
O'Reilly Christopher H.; Booth Ben; Brunner Lukas; Qasmi Said; Nogherotto Rita; Ballinger Andrew; Befort Daniel J.; Weisheimer A.; Testing methods to constrain future European climate projections in an “out-of-sample” framework. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8104] Mar 2022
Befort Daniel J.; Brunner Lukas; Borchert L. F.; O'Reilly Christopher H.; Weisheimer A.; Temporal merging of decadal predictions and climate projections to obtain seamless information: challenges and potential solutions. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9477] Mar 2022
Falkena Swinda; de Wiljes Jana; Weisheimer A.; Shepherd Theodore G.; Detection of interannual ensemble forecast signals over the North Atlantic and Europe using atmospheric circulation regimes. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society [doi:10.1002/qj.4213] Dec 2021
Patterson Matthew; O'Reilly Christopher H.; Woollings Tim; Weisheimer A.; Wu Bo; SST-driven variability of the East Asian summer jet on a decadal time-scale in CMIP6 models. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society [doi:10.1002/qj.4219] Dec 2021
Wegmann Martin; Orsolini Yvan; Weisheimer A.; van den Hurk Bart; Lohmann Gerrit; Impact of Eurasian autumn snow on the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in seasonal forecasts of the 20th century. Weather And Climate Dynamics, 2 (4) , 1245--1261, [doi:10.5194/wcd-2-1245-2021] Dec 2021
Leach Nicholas; Weisheimer A.; Allen Myles R.; Palmer Tim; Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences, 118 (49) , e2112087118, [doi:10.1073/pnas.2112087118] Nov 2021
O'Reilly Christopher H.; Befort Daniel J.; Weisheimer A.; Woollings Tim; Ballinger Andrew; Hegerl Gabriele C; Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty. Communications Earth {\&} Environment, 2 (1) , [doi:10.1038/s43247-021-00268-7] Sep 2021
Wegmann Martin; Orsolini Yvan; Weisheimer A.; van den Hurk Bart; Lohmann Gerrit; Impact of Eurasian autumn snow on the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in seasonal forecasts of the 20ᵗʰ century. [doi:10.5194/wcd-2021-52] Aug 2021
Wegmann Martin; Orsolini Yvan; Weisheimer A.; van den Hurk Bart; Lohmann Gerrit; Supplementary material to "Impact of Eurasian autumn snow on the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in seasonal forecasts of the 20ᵗʰ century". [doi:10.5194/wcd-2021-52-supplement] Aug 2021
Beverley Jonathan D.; Woolnough S.; Baker L. H.; Johnson Stephanie J.; Weisheimer A.; O’Reilly Christopher H.; Dynamical mechanisms linking Indian monsoon precipitation and the circumglobal teleconnection. Climate Dynamics [doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05825-6] Jun 2021
Sparrow Sarah; Bowery Andrew; Carver Glenn D.; Köhler Marcus O.; Ollinaho Pirkka; Pappenberger Florian; Wallom David; Weisheimer A.; OpenIFS@home version 1: a citizen science project for ensemble weather and climate forecasting. Geoscientific Model Development, 14 (6) , 3473--3486, [doi:10.5194/gmd-14-3473-2021] Jun 2021
Weisheimer A.; Befort Daniel J.; Brunner Lukas; Borchert Leonard F.; Ballinger Andrew P.; O'Reilly Christopher H.; Hegerl Gabi; Mignot Juliette; Can a model weighting scheme be used to obtain skillful, reliable and seamless climate information for the next 1-40 years?. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12737] Mar 2021
Falkena Swinda; de Wiljes Jana; Weisheimer A.; Shepherd Ted; Non-Stationarity of Wintertime Atmospheric Circulation Regimes in the Euro-Atlantic Sector. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2087] Mar 2021
Patterson Matthew; Woollings Tim; O'Reilly Chris; Weisheimer A.; Decadal variability of the East Asian summer jet and its relationship to sea surface temperatures. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2140] Mar 2021
Wegmann Martin; Orsolini Yvan; Weisheimer A.; van den Hurk Bart; Lohmann Gerrit; Forecast skill of autumn snow for European winter climate during the 20th century: A multi member seasonal prediction experiment. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2586] Mar 2021
Weisheimer A.; Decremer Damien; MacLeod David; O'Reilly Chris; Stockdale Tim; Johnson Stephanie; Palmer Tim; How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2928] Mar 2021
Leach Nicholas; Weisheimer A.; Allen Myles; Palmer Timothy; Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5731] Mar 2021
Chevuturi Amulya; Turner A. G.; Johnson S.; Weisheimer A.; Shonk Jonathan K. P.; Stockdale Timothy N.; Senan Retish; Forecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5). Climate Dynamics [doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05624-5] Feb 2021
Befort Daniel J.; O'Reilly Christopher H.; Weisheimer A.; Representing model uncertainty in multi-annual predictions. Geophysical Research Letters [doi:10.1029/2020gl090059] Dec 2020
O'Reilly Christopher H.; Befort Daniel J.; Weisheimer A.; Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data. Earth System Dynamics, 11 (4) , 1033--1049, [doi:10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020] Nov 2020
O'Reilly Christopher H.; Weisheimer A.; MacLeod David; Befort Daniel J.; Palmer Tim; Assessing the robustness of multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (733) , 4055--4066, [doi:10.1002/qj.3890] Sep 2020
Befort Daniel J.; O'Reilly Christopher H.; Weisheimer A.; Constraining Projections Using Decadal Predictions. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (18) , [doi:10.1029/2020gl087900] Sep 2020
Sparrow Sarah; Bowery Andrew; Carver Glenn D.; Köhler Marcus O.; Ollinaho Pirkka; Pappenberger Florian; Wallom David; Weisheimer A.; OpenIFS@home version 1: a citizen science project for ensemble weather and climate forecasting. [doi:10.5194/gmd-2020-217] Sep 2020
Dorrington Joshua; Finney Isla; Palmer Tim; Weisheimer A.; Beyond skill scores: exploring sub-seasonal forecast value through a case-study of French month-ahead energy prediction. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society [doi:10.1002/qj.3863] Aug 2020
Weisheimer A.; Comment on transparency of data used in this study. [doi:10.5194/nhess-2020-69-sc2] Apr 2020
Hodges Kevin; Befort Daniel J.; Weisheimer A.; Tropical Cyclones in European Seasonal Forecast Models. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-2552] Mar 2020
Befort Daniel J.; O'Reilly Christopher H.; Weisheimer A.; Constraining Climate Projections using Decadal Predictions. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-2618] Mar 2020
Dorrington Joshua; Finney Isla; Weisheimer A.; Palmer Tim; Quantifying the usefulness of European subseasonal forecasts using a real-world energy-sector framework. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5358] Mar 2020
O'Reilly Christopher H.; Befort Daniel J.; Weisheimer A.; Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5852] Mar 2020
Weisheimer A.; Balmaseda Magdalena; Stockdale Tim; Multi-decadal variability in long-range ENSO predictions (SEAS5-20C). [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-7763] Mar 2020
O'Reilly Christopher H.; Befort Daniel J.; Weisheimer A.; Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data. [doi:10.5194/esd-2020-6] Mar 2020
O'Reilly Christopher H.; Befort Daniel J.; Weisheimer A.; Supplementary material to \"Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data\". [doi:10.5194/esd-2020-6-supplement] Mar 2020
Stanger J; Finney I; Weisheimer A.; Palmer Tim; Optimising the use of ensemble information in numerical weather forecasts of wind power generation. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (12) , 124086, [doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab5e54] Dec 2019
O'Reilly Christopher H.; Woollings Tim; Zanna Laure; Weisheimer A.; An Interdecadal Shift of the Extratropical Teleconnection From the Tropical Pacific During Boreal Summer. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (22) , 13379--13388, [doi:10.1029/2019gl084079] Nov 2019
Parker Tess; Woollings Tim; Weisheimer A.; O'Reilly Christopher H.; Baker Laura; Shaffrey Len C.; Seasonal Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation From a Jet Stream Perspective. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (16) , 10159--10167, [doi:10.1029/2019gl084402] Aug 2019
Hansen F.; Kruschke T.; Greatbatch R. J.; Weisheimer A.; Factors Influencing the Seasonal Predictability of Northern Hemisphere Severe Winter Storms. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (1) , 365--373, [doi:10.1029/2018gl079415] Jan 2019
O'Reilly Christopher H.; Weisheimer A.; Woollings Tim; Gray Lesley J.; MacLeod Dave; The importance of stratospheric initial conditions for winter North Atlantic Oscillation predictability and implications for the signal-to-noise paradox. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society [doi:10.1002/qj.3413] Dec 2018
Befort Daniel J.; Wild Simon; Knight Jeff R.; Lockwood Julia F.; Thornton Hazel E.; Hermanson Leon; Bett Philip E.; Weisheimer A.; Leckebusch Gregor C.; Seasonal forecast skill for extratropical cyclones and windstorms. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society [doi:10.1002/qj.3406] Dec 2018
Weisheimer A.; Decremer Damien; MacLeod Dave; O'Reilly Christopher H.; Stockdale T.; Johnson S.; Palmer T.N.; How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society [doi:10.1002/qj.3446] Nov 2018
Baker L. H.; Shaffrey Len C.; Sutton R.T.; Weisheimer A.; Scaife A. A.; An Intercomparison of Skill and Overconfidence/Underconfidence of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in Multimodel Seasonal Forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (15) , 7808--7817, [doi:10.1029/2018gl078838] Aug 2018
Palmer T. N.; Weisheimer A.; A simple pedagogical model linking initial-value reliability with trustworthiness in the forced climate response. Bulletin Of The American Meteorological Society, 99 (3) , 605-614, 2018
Parker T; Woollings T.; Weisheimer A.; Ensemble sensitivity analysis of Greenland blocking in medium-range forecasts. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (716) , 2358-2379, [doi:10.1002/qj.3391] 2018
O{'}Reilly C. H.; Weisheimer A.; Woollings T.; GRAY L. J.; MacLeod D.; The importance of stratospheric initial conditions for winter North Atlantic Oscillation predictability and implications for the signal-to-noise paradox. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society 2018
Palmer T. N.; Weisheimer A.; A Simple Pedagogical Model linking Initial-Value Reliability with Trustworthiness in the Forced Climate Response.. Bulletin Of The American Meteorological Society [doi:10.1175/bams-d-16-0240.1] Oct 2017
Manzanas R.; Lucero A.; Weisheimer A.; Gutiérrez J. M.; Can bias correction and statistical downscaling methods improve the skill of seasonal precipitation forecasts?. Climate Dynamics [doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3668-z] Apr 2017
Berner J; Achatz U; Batté L.; Bengtsson L.; De La Cámara A.; Christensen H. M.; Colangeli M.; Coleman D. R. B.; Crommelin D.; Dolaptchiev S. I.; Franzke C. L. E.; Friederichs P.; Imkeller P.; Järvinen H.; Juricke S.; Kitsios V.; Lott F.; Lucarini V.; Mahajaajaajan S.; Palmer T. N.; Penland C.; Sakradzijaja M.; von Storch J. -S.; Weisheimer A.; Weniger M.; Williams P.D.; Yano J. -I.; Stochastic parameterization toward a new view of weather and climate models. Bulletin Of The American Meteorological Society, 98 (3) , 565-587, 2017
Leutbecher M.; Lock S. -J.; Ollinaho P.; Lang S.T.K.; Balsamo G.; Bechtold P.; Bonavita M.; Christensen H. M.; Diamantakis M.; Dutra E.; English S.; Fisher M.; Forbes R. M.; Goddard J.; Haiden T.; Hogan R. J.; Juricke S.; Lawrence H.; MacLeod D.; Magnusson L.; Malardel S.; Massart S.; Sandu I.; Smolarkiewicz P. K.; Subramanian A; Vitart F.; Wedi N.; Weisheimer A.; Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: state of the art and future vision. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society, 143 (707) , 2315-2339, [doi:10.1002/qj.3094] 2017
Hansen F.; Greatbatch R. J.; Gollan G.; Jung T.; Weisheimer A.; Remote control of North Atlantic Oscillation predictability via the stratosphere. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society, 143 (703) , 706–719, [doi:10.1002/qj.2958] Dec 2016
Davini Paolo; von Hardenberg Jost; Corti Susanna; CHRISTENSEN HANNAH M.; JURICKE STEPHAN; Subramanian Aneesh; Watson Peter A. G.; Weisheimer A.; Palmer Tim N.; Climate SPHINX: evaluating the impact of resolution and stochastic physics parameterisations in climate simulations. [doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-115] Jun 2016
MacLeod Dave; Cloke Hannah; Pappenberger Florian; Weisheimer A.; Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach. [doi:10.5194/hess-2016-28] Feb 2016
MacLeod Dave; Cloke Hannah; Pappenberger Florian; Weisheimer A.; Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach. [doi:10.5194/hess-2016-28-supplement] Feb 2016
MacLeod D.; Cloke H.; Pappenberger F.; Weisheimer A.; Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach. Hydrology And Earth System Sciences, 20 (7) , 2737-2743, 2016
Schaller N.; Kay A. L.; Lamb R.; Massey Neil; van Oldenborgh G. J.; Otto F. E. L.; Sparrow S. N.; Vautard R.; Yiou P.; Ashpole I.; Bowery A.; Crooks S. M.; Haustein K.; Huntingford C.; Ingram W. J.; Jones R. G.; Legg T.; Miller J.; Skeggs J.; Wallom D.; Weisheimer A.; Wilson S.; Stott P. A.; Allen M. R.; Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts. Nature Climate Change, 6 (6) , 627-634, 2016
Andrejczuk M.; Cooper F. C.; Juricke S.; Palmer T. N.; Weisheimer A.; Zanna L; Oceanic stochastic parameterizations in a seasonal forecast system. Monthly Weather Review, 144 (5) , 1867-1875, 2016
Orsolini Y. J.; Senan R.; Vitart F.; Balsamo G.; Weisheimer A.; Doblas-Reyes F. J.; Influence of the Eurasian snow on the negative North Atlantic Oscillation in subseasonal forecasts of the cold winter 2009/2010. Climate Dynamics [doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2903-8] Nov 2015
Shi W.; Schaller N.; MacLeod D.; Palmer T.N.; Weisheimer A.; Impact of hindcast length on estimates of seasonal climate predictability. Geophysical Research Letters n/a–n/a, [doi:10.1002/2014gl062829] Feb 2015
Corti Susanna; Palmer T.N.; Balmaseda M. A.; Weisheimer A.; Dunstone Nick J.; Hazeleger W.; Kröger Jürgen; Pohlmann H.; Smith Doug M.; von Storch J. -S.; Wouters Bert; Impact of initial conditions versus external forcing in decadal climate predictions: A sensitivity experiment.. Journal Of Climate, 28, 4454--4470, [doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00671.1.] 2015
MacLeod D.; Cloke H.; Pappenberger F.; Weisheimer A.; Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land.. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society [doi:10.1002/qj.2631] 2015
Weisheimer A.; Palmer T.N.; Can predictions of ‘barbecue summer’ ever be reliable?, https://theconversation.com/can-predictions-of-barbecue-summer-ever-be-reliable-26074, Apr 2014
Weisheimer A.; Palmer T.N.; On the Reliability of Seasonal Climate Forecasts. Journal Of The Royal Society Interface, 11 (9620131162) , [doi:10.1098/rsif.2013.1162] 2014
Weisheimer A.; Corti Susanna; Palmer T.N.; Vitart F.; Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parameterisations: Impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system.. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society A, 372 (201820130290) , [doi:10.1098/rsta.2013.0290] 2014
Weisheimer A.; Corti S.; Palmer T.N.; Vitart F.; Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: Impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical And Engineering Sciences, 372 (2018) , 2014
Palmer T.N.; Weisheimer A.; On the reliability of seasonal forecasts In , ECMWF Seminar Proceedings, 2013
Orsolini Yvan J.; Senan R.; Balsamo G.; Doblas-Reyes F. J.; Weisheimer A.; Carrasco A; Benestad R. E.; Impact of snow initialization on sub-seasonal forecasts. Climate Dynamics, 41, 1969-1982, [doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1782-0] 2013
Bindoff N. L.; Durack P. J.; Slater A.; Cameron-Smith P.; Chikamoto Y.; Clifton O.; Ginoux P.; Holland M.; Holmes C.; Infanti J.; Jacob D.; John J.; Knutson T.; Lawrence D.; Lu J.; Murphy D.; Naik V.; Robock A.; Vavrus S.; Ishii M.; Corti S.; Fichefet T.; García-Serrano J.; Guemas V.; Rodrigues L.; Gray L.; Hawkins E.; Smith D.; Stevenson D. S.; Voulgarakis A.; Weisheimer A.; Wild O.; Woollings T.; Young P.; Krinner G.; Klimont Z.; Sedlá?ek J.; van den Hurk B.; van Noije T.; Near-term climate change: Projections and predictability. Climate Change 2013 The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution To The Fifth Assessment Report Of The Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change, 9781107057999, 953-1028, [doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.023] 2013
Corti S.; Weisheimer A.; Palmer T.N.; Doblas-Reyes F. J.; Magnusson L.; Reliability of Decadal Predictions. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (L21712) , [doi:10.1029/2012GL053354] 2012
Weisheimer A.; Palmer T.N.; Doblas-Reyes FJ; Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles. Geophysical Research Letters, 38 (L16703) , [doi:10.1029/2011gl048123] Aug 2011
Weisheimer A.; Doblas-Reyes FJ; Jung T.; Palmer T.N.; On the predictability of the extreme summer 2003 over Europe. Geophysical Research Letters, 38 (L05704) , [doi:10.1029/2010gl046455] Mar 2011
Alessandri A; Borrelli A; Navarra A.; Arribas A; Déqué M.; Rogel P; Weisheimer A.; Evaluation of Probabilistic Quality and Value of the ENSEMBLES Multimodel Seasonal Forecasts: Comparison with DEMETER. Monthly Weather Review, 139, 581--607, [doi:10.1175/2010mwr3417.1] Feb 2011
Palmer T.N.; Weisheimer A.; Diagnosing the Causes of Bias in Climate Models - Why it is so Hard?. Geophysical & Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics, 105, 351-365, [doi:10.1080/03091929.2010.547194] 2011
Shutts GJ; Leutbecher M; Weisheimer A.; Stockdale T.; Isaksen L.; Bonavita M.; Representing model uncertainty: stochastic parametrizations at ECMWF.. Ecmwf Newsletter, 129, 19-24, 2011
Weisheimer A.; Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthyl and seasonal forecast ensembles. In Representing model uncertainty and error in numerical weather and climate prediction models, ECMWF, 2011
Cloke H.; Weisheimer A.; Pappenberger F.; Representing uncertainty in land surface hydrology: fully coupled simulations with the ECMWF land surface scheme. In Representing model uncertainty and error in numerical weather and climate prediction models, ECMWF, 2011
Doblas-Reyes F. J.; Balmaseda M. A.; Weisheimer A.; Palmer T. N.; Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations. Journal Of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 116 (19) , 2011
Palmer T. N.; Weisheimer A.; Diagnosing the causes of bias in climate models - why is it so hard?. Geophysical And Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics, 105 (2-3) , 351-365, 2011
Weisheimer A.; Doblas-Reyes FJ; Palmer T.N.; Model uncertainty in seasonal to decadal forecasting - insight from the ENSEMBLES project.. Ecmwf Newsletter, 122, 21--26, Jan 2010
Doblas-Reyes FJ; Balmaseda M.; Weisheimer A.; Palmer T.N.; Decadal climate prediction with the ECMWF coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations. (Technical report), , [doi:10.1029/2010JD015394] 2010
Doblas-Reyes FJ; Weisheimer A.; Palmer T.N.; Murphy Jm; Smith D.; Forecast quality assessment of the ENSEMBLES seasonal-to-decadal Stream 2 hindcasts. (Technical report), , 2010
Weisheimer A.; Doblas-Reyes FJ; Palmer T.N.; Alessandri A; Arribas A; Déqué M.; Keenlyside N.; MacVean M; Navarra A.; Rogel P; ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions-Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs. Geophysical Research Letters, 36 (L21711) , [doi:10.1029/2009gl040896] Nov 2009
Palmer T.N.; Doblas-Reyes FJ; Weisheimer A.; Rodwell MJ; Toward Seamless Prediction: Calibration of Climate Change Projections Using Seasonal Forecasts Reply. Bulletin Of The American Meteorological Society, 90, 1551--1554, [doi:10.1175/2009bams2916.1] Oct 2009
Doblas-Reyes FJ; Weisheimer A.; Déqué M.; Keenlyside N.; McVean M; Murphy Jm; Rogel P; Smith D.; Palmer T.N.; Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society, 135, 1538--1559, [doi:10.1002/qj.464] Jul 2009
Anderson D; Doblas-Reyes FJ; Balmaseda M.; Weisheimer A.; Decadal variability: Processes, predictability and prediction. (Technical report), , 2009
Palmer T.N.; Buizza R; Doblas-Reyes FJ; Jung T.; Leutbecher M; Shutts GJ; Steinheimer M; Weisheimer A.; Stochastic parametrization and model uncertainty. (Technical report), , 2009
Weisheimer A.; Doblas-Reyes F. J.; Palmer T. N.; Alessandri A; Arribas A; Déqué M.; Keenlyside N.; MacVean M; Navarra A.; Rogel P.; ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions - Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs. Geophysical Research Letters, 36 (21) , 2009
Berner J; Doblas-Reyes FJ; Palmer T.N.; Shutts GJ; Weisheimer A.; Impact of a quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and seasonal prediction skill of a global climate model.. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical And Engineering Sciences, 366, 2561--2579, [doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0033] Jul 2008
Palmer T.N.; Doblas-Reyes FJ; Weisheimer A.; Rodwell MJ; Toward seamless prediction: Calibration of climate change projections using seasonal forecasts. Bulletin Of The American Meteorological Society, 89, 459--+, [doi:10.1175/bams-89-4-459] Apr 2008
Berner J; Doblas-Reyes F. J.; Palmer T. N.; Shutts G.; Weisheimer A.; Impact of a quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and seasonal prediction skill of a global climate model. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical And Engineering Sciences, 366 (1875) , 2561-2579, 2008
Vitart F.; Huddleston MR; Déqué M.; Peake D; Palmer T.N.; Stockdale T.; Davey MK; Ineson S; Weisheimer A.; Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP. Geophysical Research Letters, 34 (L16815) , [doi:10.1029/2007gl030740] Aug 2007
Judd K; Smith LA; Weisheimer A.; How good is an ensemble at capturing truth? Using bounding boxes for forecast evaluation. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society, 133, 1309--1325, [doi:10.1002/qj.111] Jul 2007
Palmer T.N.; Doblas-Reyes FJ; Weisheimer A.; Rodwell M; Seasonal Forecast Datasets - A resource for Calibrating Regional Climate Change Projections?. Clivar Exchanges, 43, 6--7, 2007
Weisheimer A.; Doblas-Reyes FJ; Rogel P; Keenlyside N.; Balmaseda M.; Murphy J; Smith D.; Collins M.; Bhaskaran B; Palmer T.N.; Initialisation strategies for decadal hindcasts for the 1960-2005 period within the ENSEMBLES project. (Technical report), , 2007
Morcrette J; Bechtold P; Beljaars A; Weisheimer A.; Recent Advances in Radiation Transfer Parametrizations. (Technical report), , 2007
le Treut H.; Somerville R.; Weisheimer A.; Historical Overview of Climate Change Science In Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 4th Assessment Report, Working Group 1: The Physical Basis of Climate Change, pages 93--128, 2007
Judd K; Smith L. A.; Weisheimer A.; How good is an ensemble an capturing truth? Using bounding boxes for forecast evaluation. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society, 133 (626 A) , 1309-1325, 2007
Weisheimer A.; Palmer T. N.; Erratum: "Changing frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures under global warming" (Geophysical Research Letters (2005) vol. 32 10.1029/2005GL023365). Geophysical Research Letters, 33 (7) , 2006
Palmer T.N.; Doblas-Reyes FJ; Hagedorn R; Weisheimer A.; Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: from basics to applications.. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci, 360, 1991--1998, [doi:10.1098/rstb.2005.1750] Nov 2005
Weisheimer A.; Palmer T.N.; Changing frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 32 (L20721) , [doi:10.1029/2005gl023365] Oct 2005
Casty C; Handorf D; Raible CC; Gonzalez-Rouco JF; Weisheimer A.; Xoplaki E; Luterbacher J; Dethloff K; Wanner H; Recurrent climate winter regimes in reconstructed and modelled 500 hPa geopotential height fields over the North Atlantic/European sector 1659-1990. Clim Dynam, 24, 809--822, [doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0496-8] Jun 2005
Weisheimer A.; Smith LA; Judd K; A new view of seasonal forecast skill: bounding boxes from the DEMETER ensemble forecasts. Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology And Oceanography, 57, 265--279, [doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00106.x] May 2005
Palmer T. N.; Doblas-Reyes F. J.; Hagedorn R; Weisheimer A.; Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: From basics to applications. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 360 (1463) , 1991-1998, 2005
Judd K; Smith L; Weisheimer A.; Gradient free descent: shadowing, and state estimation using limited derivative information. Physica D, 190, 153--166, [doi:10.1016/j.physd.2003.10.011] Apr 2004
Kunitsyn V.; Zakharov V.; Dethloff K; Weisheimer A.; Gerding M.; Neuber R; Rinke A.; Hebestadt I.; Improved radio occultation sounding of the Arctic atmosphere using simulations with a high resolution atmospheric model. Physics And Chemistry Of The Earth, 29 (2-3) , 277-286, 2004
Weisheimer A.; Kurgansky MV; Dethloff K; Handorf DR; Extratropical low-frequency variability in a three-level quasi-geostrophic atmospheric model with different spectral resolution. Journal Of Geophysical Research, 108 (4171) , [doi:10.1029/2001jd001282] Mar 2003
Weisheimer A.; Handorf D; Dethloff K; On the structure and variability of atmospheric circulation regimes in coupled climate models. Atmospheric Science Letters, 2, LI--LIX, [doi:10.1006/asle.2001.0026] 2001
Weisheimer A.; Niederfrequente Variabilität großräumiger atmosphärischer Zirkulationsstrukturen in spektralen Modellen niederer Ordnung. (Technical report), , [doi:10013/epic.10360.d001] 2000
Rex M.; Dethloff K; Handorf D; Herber A.; Lehmann R.; Neuber R; Notholt J.; Rinke A.; von der Gathen P.; Weisheimer A.; Gernandt H.; Arctic and Antarctic ozone layer observations: Chemical and dynamical aspects of variability and long-term changes in the polar stratosphere. Polar Research, 19 (2) , 193-204, 2000
Mokhov I. I.; Eliseev A. V.; Handorf D; Petukhov V. K.; Dethloff K; Weisheimer A.; Khvorost{'}yanov D. V.; North Atlantic oscillation: Diagnosis and simulation of decadal variability and its long-period evolution. Izvestiya - Atmospheric And Ocean Physics, 36 (5) , 555-565, 2000
Handorf D; Petoukhov V. K.; Dethloff K; Eliseev A. V.; Weisheimer A.; Mokhov I. I.; Decadal climate variability in a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model of moderate complexity. Journal Of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 104 (D22) , 27253-27275, 1999
Dethloff K; Weisheimer A.; Rinke A.; Handorf D; Kurgansky M. V.; Jansen W.; Maaß P.; Hupfer P.; Climate variability in a nonlinear atmosphere-like dynamical system. Journal Of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 103 (D20) , 25957-25966, 1998

NCAS database: Dr Antje Weisheimer

Weisheimer, Dr Antje

Senior NCAS Research Fellow

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Policy advice