Weisheimer, Dr Antje

Senior NCAS Research Fellow

Address

University of Oxford

Atmospheric Physics

Clarendon Laboratory

Parks Road

Oxford

OX1 3PU

 
ORCID
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7231-6974
twitter
@AntjeWeisheimer
email
+44 186 528 2441  
Website
https://www2.physics.ox.ac.uk/contacts/people/weisheimer  
Picture of Weisheimer, Dr Antje

Publications

  • Sharmila, S.; Hendon, H.; Alves, O.; Weisheimer, A.; Balmaseda, M.; Contrasting El Niño–La Niña Predictability and Prediction Skill in 2-Year Reforecasts of the Twentieth Century. Journal Of Climate, 36 (5) , 1269--1285, [doi:10.1175/jcli-d-22-0028.1] Mar 2023
  • Hempel, Tim; Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, Tim; The seasonal teleconnections of the Indian Ocean Dipole to the North Atlantic region. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5665] Feb 2023
  • Tietsche, Steffen; Vitart, Frederic; Mayer, Michael; Weisheimer, A.; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Underestimation of Arctic warming trends in sub-seasonal forecasts. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14141] Feb 2023
  • Brocker, Jochen; Charlton‐Perez, A. J.; Weisheimer, A.; A statistical perspective on the signal–to–noise paradox. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society [doi:10.1002/qj.4440] Feb 2023
  • Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.; Fischer, Erich M.; Knutti, Reto; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Schär, Christoph; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Weisheimer, A.; Wernli, Heini; Prediction and projection of heatwaves. Nature Reviews Earth {\&}Amp$\Mathsemicolon$ Environment, 4 (1) , 36--50, [doi:10.1038/s43017-022-00371-z] Dec 2022
  • Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.; Fischer, Erich M.; Knutti, Reto; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Schär, Christoph; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Weisheimer, A.; Wernli, Heini; Prediction and projection of heatwaves. Nature Reviews Earth {\&}Amp$\Mathsemicolon$ Environment, 4 (1) , 36--50, [doi:10.1038/s43017-022-00371-z] Dec 2022
  • Patterson, Matthew; Weisheimer, A.; Befort, Daniel J.; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; The strong role of external forcing in seasonal forecasts of European summer temperature. Environmental Research Letters, 17 (10) , 104033, [doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac9243] Oct 2022
  • Di Capua, Giorgia; Coumou, Dim; van den Hurk, Bart; Weisheimer, A.; Turner, A.G.; Donner, Reik V; Supplementary material to "Validation of boreal summer tropical-extratropical causal links in seasonal forecasts". [doi:10.5194/wcd-2022-48-supplement] Aug 2022
  • Di Capua, Giorgia; Coumou, Dim; van den Hurk, Bart; Weisheimer, A.; Turner, A.G.; Donner, Reik V; Validation of boreal summer tropical-extratropical causal links in seasonal forecasts. [doi:10.5194/wcd-2022-48] Aug 2022
  • Leach, Nicholas; Roberts, Christopher; Heathcote, Daniel; Mitchell, Dann; Thompson, Vikki; Palmer, Tim; Weisheimer, A.; Allen, Myles; Reliable heatwave attribution based on successful operational weather forecasts. [doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1868647/v1] Aug 2022
  • Befort, Daniel J.; Brunner, L.; Borchert, L. F.; O{'}Reilly, C. H.; Mignot, J.; Ballinger, Andrew; Hegerl, Gabriele C; Murphy, J. M.; Weisheimer, A.; Combination of Decadal Predictions and Climate Projections in Time: Challenges and Potential Solutions. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (15) , [doi:10.1029/2022gl098568] Aug 2022
  • Fung, Fai; Goddard, Christopher; McSweeney, Carol; Crocker, Tom; Matte, Dominic; Ballinger, Andrew; Hegerl, Gabi; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Weisheimer, A.; van der Wiel, Karin; Wilcke, Renate; Building storylines for applications: what have we learned in the {EUCP} project?. [doi:10.5194/ems2022-444] Jun 2022
  • Weisheimer, A.; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Stockdale, T. N.; Mayer, Michael; Sharmila, S.; Hendon, Harry; Alves, Oscar; Variability of {ENSO} Forecast Skill in 2-Year Global Reforecasts Over the 20th Century. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (10) , [doi:10.1029/2022gl097885] May 2022
  • Befort, Daniel J.; Brunner, Lukas; Borchert, L. F.; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Weisheimer, A.; Temporal merging of decadal predictions and climate projections to obtain seamless information: challenges and potential solutions. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9477] Mar 2022
  • O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Booth, Ben; Brunner, Lukas; Qasmi, Said; Nogherotto, Rita; Ballinger, Andrew; Befort, Daniel J.; Weisheimer, A.; Testing methods to constrain future European climate projections in an “out-of-sample” framework. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8104] Mar 2022
  • Hempel, Tim; Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, Tim; The seasonal teleconnections of the Indian Ocean Dipole to the North Atlantic region. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu22-7631] Mar 2022
  • Leach, Nicholas; Roberts, Chris; Palmer, Tim; Allen, Myles R.; Weisheimer, A.; Towards forecast-based attribution of isolated extreme events: perturbed initial condition simulations of the Pacific Northwest heatwave. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5949] Mar 2022
  • Patterson, Matthew; Weisheimer, A.; Befort, Daniel J.; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; The strong role of external forcing in seasonal forecasts of European summer temperatures. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1793] Mar 2022
  • Wegmann, Martin; Orsolini, Yvan; Weisheimer, A.; van den Hurk, Bart; Lohmann, Gerrit; Impact of Eurasian autumn snow on the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in seasonal forecasts of the 20th century. Weather And Climate Dynamics, 2 (4) , 1245--1261, [doi:10.5194/wcd-2-1245-2021] Dec 2021
  • Patterson, Matthew; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Woollings, Tim; Weisheimer, A.; Wu, Bo; SST-driven variability of the East Asian summer jet on a decadal time-scale in CMIP6 models. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society [doi:10.1002/qj.4219] Dec 2021
  • Falkena, Swinda; de Wiljes, Jana; Weisheimer, A.; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Detection of interannual ensemble forecast signals over the North Atlantic and Europe using atmospheric circulation regimes. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society [doi:10.1002/qj.4213] Dec 2021
  • Patterson, Matthew; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Woollings, Tim; Weisheimer, A.; Wu, Bo; SST-driven variability of the East Asian summer jet on a decadal time-scale in CMIP6 models. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society [doi:10.1002/qj.4219] Dec 2021
  • Falkena, Swinda; de Wiljes, Jana; Weisheimer, A.; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Detection of interannual ensemble forecast signals over the North Atlantic and Europe using atmospheric circulation regimes. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society [doi:10.1002/qj.4213] Dec 2021
  • Leach, Nicholas; Weisheimer, A.; Allen, Myles R.; Palmer, Tim; Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences, 118 (49) , e2112087118, [doi:10.1073/pnas.2112087118] Nov 2021
  • O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Befort, Daniel J.; Weisheimer, A.; Woollings, Tim; Ballinger, Andrew; Hegerl, Gabriele C; Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty. Communications Earth {\&} Environment, 2 (1) , [doi:10.1038/s43247-021-00268-7] Sep 2021
  • Wegmann, Martin; Orsolini, Yvan; Weisheimer, A.; van den Hurk, Bart; Lohmann, Gerrit; Supplementary material to "Impact of Eurasian autumn snow on the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in seasonal forecasts of the 20ᵗʰ century". [doi:10.5194/wcd-2021-52-supplement] Aug 2021
  • Wegmann, Martin; Orsolini, Yvan; Weisheimer, A.; van den Hurk, Bart; Lohmann, Gerrit; Impact of Eurasian autumn snow on the winter North Atlantic Oscillation in seasonal forecasts of the 20ᵗʰ century. [doi:10.5194/wcd-2021-52] Aug 2021
  • Sparrow, Sarah; Bowery, Andrew; Carver, Glenn D.; Köhler, Marcus O.; Ollinaho, Pirkka; Pappenberger, Florian; Wallom, David; Weisheimer, A.; {OpenIFS}@home version 1: a citizen science project for ensemble weather and climate forecasting. Geoscientific Model Development, 14 (6) , 3473--3486, [doi:10.5194/gmd-14-3473-2021] Jun 2021
  • Beverley, Jonathan D.; Woolnough, S.; Baker, L. H.; Johnson, Stephanie J.; Weisheimer, A.; O’Reilly, Christopher H.; Dynamical mechanisms linking Indian monsoon precipitation and the circumglobal teleconnection. Climate Dynamics [doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05825-6] Jun 2021
  • Leach, Nicholas; Weisheimer, A.; Allen, Myles; Palmer, Timothy; Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5731] Mar 2021
  • Weisheimer, A.; Decremer, Damien; MacLeod, David; O'Reilly, Chris; Stockdale, Tim; Johnson, Stephanie; Palmer, Tim; How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2928] Mar 2021
  • Wegmann, Martin; Orsolini, Yvan; Weisheimer, A.; van den Hurk, Bart; Lohmann, Gerrit; Forecast skill of autumn snow for European winter climate during the 20th century: A multi member seasonal prediction experiment. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2586] Mar 2021
  • Patterson, Matthew; Woollings, Tim; O'Reilly, Chris; Weisheimer, A.; Decadal variability of the East Asian summer jet and its relationship to sea surface temperatures. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2140] Mar 2021
  • Falkena, Swinda; de Wiljes, Jana; Weisheimer, A.; Shepherd, Ted; Non-Stationarity of Wintertime Atmospheric Circulation Regimes in the Euro-Atlantic Sector. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2087] Mar 2021
  • Weisheimer, A.; Befort, Daniel J.; Brunner, Lukas; Borchert, Leonard F.; Ballinger, Andrew P.; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Hegerl, Gabi; Mignot, Juliette; Can a model weighting scheme be used to obtain skillful, reliable and seamless climate information for the next 1-40 years?. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12737] Mar 2021
  • Chevuturi, Amulya; Turner, A. G.; Johnson, S.; Weisheimer, A.; Shonk, Jonathan K. P.; Stockdale, Timothy N.; Senan, Retish; Forecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5). Climate Dynamics [doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05624-5] Feb 2021
  • Befort, Daniel J.; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Weisheimer, A.; Representing model uncertainty in multi-annual predictions. Geophysical Research Letters [doi:10.1029/2020gl090059] Dec 2020
  • O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Befort, Daniel J.; Weisheimer, A.; Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data. Earth System Dynamics, 11 (4) , 1033--1049, [doi:10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020] Nov 2020
  • Sparrow, Sarah; Bowery, Andrew; Carver, Glenn D.; Köhler, Marcus O.; Ollinaho, Pirkka; Pappenberger, Florian; Wallom, David; Weisheimer, A.; {OpenIFS}@home version 1: a citizen science project for ensemble weather and climate forecasting. [doi:10.5194/gmd-2020-217] Sep 2020
  • O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Weisheimer, A.; MacLeod, David; Befort, Daniel J.; Palmer, Tim; Assessing the robustness of multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere wintertime seasonal forecast skill. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (733) , 4055--4066, [doi:10.1002/qj.3890] Sep 2020
  • Befort, Daniel J.; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Weisheimer, A.; Constraining Projections Using Decadal Predictions. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (18) , [doi:10.1029/2020gl087900] Sep 2020
  • Dorrington, Joshua; Finney, Isla; Palmer, Tim; Weisheimer, A.; Beyond skill scores: exploring sub-seasonal forecast value through a case-study of French month-ahead energy prediction. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society [doi:10.1002/qj.3863] Aug 2020
  • Weisheimer, A.; Comment on transparency of data used in this study. [doi:10.5194/nhess-2020-69-sc2] Apr 2020
  • O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Befort, Daniel J.; Weisheimer, A.; Supplementary material to \"Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data\". [doi:10.5194/esd-2020-6-supplement] Mar 2020
  • O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Befort, Daniel J.; Weisheimer, A.; Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data. [doi:10.5194/esd-2020-6] Mar 2020
  • Weisheimer, A.; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Stockdale, Tim; Multi-decadal variability in long-range ENSO predictions (SEAS5-20C). [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-7763] Mar 2020
  • O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Befort, Daniel J.; Weisheimer, A.; Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5852] Mar 2020
  • Dorrington, Joshua; Finney, Isla; Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, Tim; Quantifying the usefulness of European subseasonal forecasts using a real-world energy-sector framework. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5358] Mar 2020
  • Befort, Daniel J.; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Weisheimer, A.; Constraining Climate Projections using Decadal Predictions. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-2618] Mar 2020
  • Hodges, Kevin; Befort, Daniel J.; Weisheimer, A.; Tropical Cyclones in European Seasonal Forecast Models. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-2552] Mar 2020
  • Stanger, J; Finney, I; Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, Tim; Optimising the use of ensemble information in numerical weather forecasts of wind power generation. Environmental Research Letters, 14 (12) , 124086, [doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab5e54] Dec 2019
  • O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Woollings, Tim; Zanna, Laure; Weisheimer, A.; An Interdecadal Shift of the Extratropical Teleconnection From the Tropical Pacific During Boreal Summer. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (22) , 13379--13388, [doi:10.1029/2019gl084079] Nov 2019
  • Parker, Tess; Woollings, Tim; Weisheimer, A.; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Baker, Laura; Shaffrey, Len C.; Seasonal Predictability of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation From a Jet Stream Perspective. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (16) , 10159--10167, [doi:10.1029/2019gl084402] Aug 2019
  • Hansen, F.; Kruschke, T.; Greatbatch, R. J.; Weisheimer, A.; Factors Influencing the Seasonal Predictability of Northern Hemisphere Severe Winter Storms. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (1) , 365--373, [doi:10.1029/2018gl079415] Jan 2019
  • Befort, Daniel J.; Wild, Simon; Knight, Jeff R.; Lockwood, Julia F.; Thornton, Hazel E.; Hermanson, Leon; Bett, Philip E.; Weisheimer, A.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Seasonal forecast skill for extratropical cyclones and windstorms. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society [doi:10.1002/qj.3406] Dec 2018
  • O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Weisheimer, A.; Woollings, Tim; Gray, Lesley J.; MacLeod, Dave; The importance of stratospheric initial conditions for winter North Atlantic Oscillation predictability and implications for the signal-to-noise paradox. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society [doi:10.1002/qj.3413] Dec 2018
  • Weisheimer, A.; Decremer, Damien; MacLeod, Dave; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Stockdale, T.; Johnson, S.; Palmer, T.N.; How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society [doi:10.1002/qj.3446] Nov 2018
  • Baker, L. H.; Shaffrey, Len C.; Sutton, R.T.; Weisheimer, A.; Scaife, A. A.; An Intercomparison of Skill and Overconfidence/Underconfidence of the Wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation in Multimodel Seasonal Forecasts. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (15) , 7808--7817, [doi:10.1029/2018gl078838] Aug 2018
  • O{'}Reilly, C. H.; Weisheimer, A.; Woollings, T.; GRAY, L. J.; MacLeod, D.; The importance of stratospheric initial conditions for winter North Atlantic Oscillation predictability and implications for the signal-to-noise paradox. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society 2018
  • Parker, T; Woollings, T.; Weisheimer, A.; Ensemble sensitivity analysis of Greenland blocking in medium-range forecasts. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society, 144 (716) , 2358-2379, [doi:10.1002/qj.3391] 2018
  • Palmer, T. N.; Weisheimer, A.; A simple pedagogical model linking initial-value reliability with trustworthiness in the forced climate response. Bulletin Of The American Meteorological Society, 99 (3) , 605-614, 2018
  • Palmer, T. N.; Weisheimer, A.; A Simple Pedagogical Model linking Initial-Value Reliability with Trustworthiness in the Forced Climate Response.. Bulletin Of The American Meteorological Society [doi:10.1175/bams-d-16-0240.1] Oct 2017
  • Manzanas, R.; Lucero, A.; Weisheimer, A.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Can bias correction and statistical downscaling methods improve the skill of seasonal precipitation forecasts?. Climate Dynamics [doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3668-z] Apr 2017
  • Leutbecher, M.; Lock, S. -J.; Ollinaho, P.; Lang, S.T.K.; Balsamo, G.; Bechtold, P.; Bonavita, M.; Christensen, H. M.; Diamantakis, M.; Dutra, E.; English, S.; Fisher, M.; Forbes, R. M.; Goddard, J.; Haiden, T.; Hogan, R. J.; Juricke, S.; Lawrence, H.; MacLeod, D.; Magnusson, L.; Malardel, S.; Massart, S.; Sandu, I.; Smolarkiewicz, P. K.; Subramanian, A; Vitart, F.; Wedi, N.; Weisheimer, A.; Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: state of the art and future vision. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society, 143 (707) , 2315-2339, [doi:10.1002/qj.3094] 2017
  • Berner, J; Achatz, U; Batté, L.; Bengtsson, L.; De La Cámara, A.; Christensen, H. M.; Colangeli, M.; Coleman, D. R. B.; Crommelin, D.; Dolaptchiev, S. I.; Franzke, C. L. E.; Friederichs, P.; Imkeller, P.; Järvinen, H.; Juricke, S.; Kitsios, V.; Lott, F.; Lucarini, V.; Mahajaajaajan, S.; Palmer, T. N.; Penland, C.; Sakradzijaja, M.; von Storch, J. -S.; Weisheimer, A.; Weniger, M.; Williams, P.D.; Yano, J. -I.; Stochastic parameterization toward a new view of weather and climate models. Bulletin Of The American Meteorological Society, 98 (3) , 565-587, 2017
  • Hansen, F.; Greatbatch, R. J.; Gollan, G.; Jung, T.; Weisheimer, A.; Remote control of North Atlantic Oscillation predictability via the stratosphere. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society, 143 (703) , 706–719, [doi:10.1002/qj.2958] Dec 2016
  • Davini, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Corti, Susanna; CHRISTENSEN, HANNAH M.; JURICKE, STEPHAN; Subramanian, Aneesh; Watson, Peter A. G.; Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, Tim N.; Climate SPHINX: evaluating the impact of resolution and stochastic physics parameterisations in climate simulations. [doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-115] Jun 2016
  • Matsueda, M.; Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T. N.; Calibrating Climate Change Time-Slice Projections with Estimates of Seasonal Forecast Reliability. Journal Of Climate, 29 (10) , 3831–3840, [doi:10.1175/jcli-d-15-0087.1] May 2016
  • MacLeod, Dave; Cloke, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Weisheimer, A.; Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach. [doi:10.5194/hess-2016-28-supplement] Feb 2016
  • MacLeod, Dave; Cloke, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Weisheimer, A.; Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach. [doi:10.5194/hess-2016-28] Feb 2016
  • Andrejczuk, M.; Cooper, F. C.; Juricke, S.; Palmer, T. N.; Weisheimer, A.; Zanna, L; Oceanic stochastic parameterizations in a seasonal forecast system. Monthly Weather Review, 144 (5) , 1867-1875, 2016
  • Schaller, N.; Kay, A. L.; Lamb, R.; Massey, Neil; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Otto, F. E. L.; Sparrow, S. N.; Vautard, R.; Yiou, P.; Ashpole, I.; Bowery, A.; Crooks, S. M.; Haustein, K.; Huntingford, C.; Ingram, W. J.; Jones, R. G.; Legg, T.; Miller, J.; Skeggs, J.; Wallom, D.; Weisheimer, A.; Wilson, S.; Stott, P. A.; Allen, M. R.; Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts. Nature Climate Change, 6 (6) , 627-634, 2016
  • MacLeod, D.; Cloke, H.; Pappenberger, F.; Weisheimer, A.; Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach. Hydrology And Earth System Sciences, 20 (7) , 2737-2743, 2016
  • Orsolini, Y. J.; Senan, R.; Vitart, F.; Balsamo, G.; Weisheimer, A.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Influence of the Eurasian snow on the negative North Atlantic Oscillation in subseasonal forecasts of the cold winter 2009/2010. Climate Dynamics [doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2903-8] Nov 2015
  • Shi, W.; Schaller, N.; MacLeod, D.; Palmer, T.N.; Weisheimer, A.; Impact of hindcast length on estimates of seasonal climate predictability. Geophysical Research Letters n/a–n/a, [doi:10.1002/2014gl062829] Feb 2015
  • MacLeod, D.; Cloke, H.; Pappenberger, F.; Weisheimer, A.; Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land.. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society [doi:10.1002/qj.2631] 2015
  • Corti, Susanna; Palmer, T.N.; Balmaseda, M. A.; Weisheimer, A.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Hazeleger, W.; Kröger, Jürgen; Pohlmann, H.; Smith, Doug M.; von Storch, J. -S.; Wouters, Bert; Impact of initial conditions versus external forcing in decadal climate predictions: A sensitivity experiment.. Journal Of Climate, 28, 4454--4470, [doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00671.1.] 2015
  • Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T.N.; Can predictions of ‘barbecue summer’ ever be reliable?, https://theconversation.com/can-predictions-of-barbecue-summer-ever-be-reliable-26074, Apr 2014
  • Weisheimer, A.; Corti, S.; Palmer, T.N.; Vitart, F.; Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: Impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical And Engineering Sciences, 372 (2018) , 2014
  • Weisheimer, A.; Corti, Susanna; Palmer, T.N.; Vitart, F.; Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parameterisations: Impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system.. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society A, 372 (201820130290) , [doi:10.1098/rsta.2013.0290] 2014
  • Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T.N.; On the Reliability of Seasonal Climate Forecasts. Journal Of The Royal Society Interface, 11 (9620131162) , [doi:10.1098/rsif.2013.1162] 2014
  • Bindoff, N. L.; Durack, P. J.; Slater, A.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Chikamoto, Y.; Clifton, O.; Ginoux, P.; Holland, M.; Holmes, C.; Infanti, J.; Jacob, D.; John, J.; Knutson, T.; Lawrence, D.; Lu, J.; Murphy, D.; Naik, V.; Robock, A.; Vavrus, S.; Ishii, M.; Corti, S.; Fichefet, T.; García-Serrano, J.; Guemas, V.; Rodrigues, L.; Gray, L.; Hawkins, E.; Smith, D.; Stevenson, D. S.; Voulgarakis, A.; Weisheimer, A.; Wild, O.; Woollings, T.; Young, P.; Krinner, G.; Klimont, Z.; Sedlá?ek, J.; van den Hurk, B.; van Noije, T.; Near-term climate change: Projections and predictability. Climate Change 2013 The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution To The Fifth Assessment Report Of The Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change, 9781107057999, 953-1028, [doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.023] 2013
  • Orsolini, Yvan J.; Senan, R.; Balsamo, G.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Weisheimer, A.; Carrasco, A; Benestad, R. E.; Impact of snow initialization on sub-seasonal forecasts. Climate Dynamics, 41, 1969-1982, [doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1782-0] 2013
  • Palmer, T.N.; Weisheimer, A.; On the reliability of seasonal forecasts In , ECMWF Seminar Proceedings, 2013
  • Corti, S.; Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T.N.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Magnusson, L.; Reliability of Decadal Predictions. Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (L21712) , [doi:10.1029/2012GL053354] 2012
  • Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T.N.; Doblas-Reyes, FJ; Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles. Geophysical Research Letters, 38 (L16703) , [doi:10.1029/2011gl048123] Aug 2011
  • Weisheimer, A.; Doblas-Reyes, FJ; Jung, T.; Palmer, T.N.; On the predictability of the extreme summer 2003 over Europe. Geophysical Research Letters, 38 (L05704) , [doi:10.1029/2010gl046455] Mar 2011
  • Alessandri, A; Borrelli, A; Navarra, A.; Arribas, A; Déqué, M.; Rogel, P; Weisheimer, A.; Evaluation of Probabilistic Quality and Value of the ENSEMBLES Multimodel Seasonal Forecasts: Comparison with DEMETER. Monthly Weather Review, 139, 581--607, [doi:10.1175/2010mwr3417.1] Feb 2011
  • Palmer, T. N.; Weisheimer, A.; Diagnosing the causes of bias in climate models - why is it so hard?. Geophysical And Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics, 105 (2-3) , 351-365, 2011
  • Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Balmaseda, M. A.; Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T. N.; Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations. Journal Of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 116 (19) , 2011
  • Cloke, H.; Weisheimer, A.; Pappenberger, F.; Representing uncertainty in land surface hydrology: fully coupled simulations with the ECMWF land surface scheme. In Representing model uncertainty and error in numerical weather and climate prediction models, ECMWF, 2011
  • Weisheimer, A.; Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthyl and seasonal forecast ensembles. In Representing model uncertainty and error in numerical weather and climate prediction models, ECMWF, 2011
  • Shutts, GJ; Leutbecher, M; Weisheimer, A.; Stockdale, T.; Isaksen, L.; Bonavita, M.; Representing model uncertainty: stochastic parametrizations at ECMWF.. Ecmwf Newsletter, 129, 19-24, 2011
  • Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Balmaseda, M. A.; Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T.N.; Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Mediuam-Range weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations.. Journal Of Geophysical Research, 116 (D19111) , [doi:10.1029/2010JD015394] 2011
  • Palmer, T.N.; Weisheimer, A.; Diagnosing the Causes of Bias in Climate Models - Why it is so Hard?. Geophysical & Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics, 105, 351-365, [doi:10.1080/03091929.2010.547194] 2011
  • Doblas-Reyes, FJ; Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T.N.; Murphy, Jm; Smith, D.; Forecast quality assessment of the ENSEMBLES seasonal-to-decadal Stream 2 hindcasts. (Technical report), , 2010
  • Doblas-Reyes, FJ; Balmaseda, M.; Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T.N.; Decadal climate prediction with the ECMWF coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations. (Technical report), , [doi:10.1029/2010JD015394] 2010
  • Weisheimer, A.; Doblas-Reyes, FJ; Palmer, T.N.; Model uncertainty in seasonal to decadal forecasting - insight from the ENSEMBLES project.. Ecmwf Newsletter, 122, 21--26, Jan 2010
  • Weisheimer, A.; Doblas-Reyes, FJ; Palmer, T.N.; Alessandri, A; Arribas, A; Déqué, M.; Keenlyside, N.; MacVean, M; Navarra, A.; Rogel, P; ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions-Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs. Geophysical Research Letters, 36 (L21711) , [doi:10.1029/2009gl040896] Nov 2009
  • Palmer, T.N.; Doblas-Reyes, FJ; Weisheimer, A.; Rodwell, MJ; Toward Seamless Prediction: Calibration of Climate Change Projections Using Seasonal Forecasts Reply. Bulletin Of The American Meteorological Society, 90, 1551--1554, [doi:10.1175/2009bams2916.1] Oct 2009
  • Doblas-Reyes, FJ; Weisheimer, A.; Déqué, M.; Keenlyside, N.; McVean, M; Murphy, Jm; Rogel, P; Smith, D.; Palmer, T.N.; Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society, 135, 1538--1559, [doi:10.1002/qj.464] Jul 2009
  • Weisheimer, A.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Palmer, T. N.; Alessandri, A; Arribas, A; Déqué, M.; Keenlyside, N.; MacVean, M; Navarra, A.; Rogel, P.; ENSEMBLES: A new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions - Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs. Geophysical Research Letters, 36 (21) , 2009
  • Palmer, T.N.; Buizza, R; Doblas-Reyes, FJ; Jung, T.; Leutbecher, M; Shutts, GJ; Steinheimer, M; Weisheimer, A.; Stochastic parametrization and model uncertainty. (Technical report), , 2009
  • Anderson, D; Doblas-Reyes, FJ; Balmaseda, M.; Weisheimer, A.; Decadal variability: Processes, predictability and prediction. (Technical report), , 2009
  • Berner, J; Doblas-Reyes, FJ; Palmer, T.N.; Shutts, GJ; Weisheimer, A.; Impact of a quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and seasonal prediction skill of a global climate model.. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical And Engineering Sciences, 366, 2561--2579, [doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0033] Jul 2008
  • Palmer, T.N.; Doblas-Reyes, FJ; Weisheimer, A.; Rodwell, MJ; Toward seamless prediction: Calibration of climate change projections using seasonal forecasts. Bulletin Of The American Meteorological Society, 89, 459--+, [doi:10.1175/bams-89-4-459] Apr 2008
  • Berner, J; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Palmer, T. N.; Shutts, G.; Weisheimer, A.; Impact of a quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and seasonal prediction skill of a global climate model. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical And Engineering Sciences, 366 (1875) , 2561-2579, 2008
  • Vitart, F.; Huddleston, MR; Déqué, M.; Peake, D; Palmer, T.N.; Stockdale, T.; Davey, MK; Ineson, S; Weisheimer, A.; Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP. Geophysical Research Letters, 34 (L16815) , [doi:10.1029/2007gl030740] Aug 2007
  • Judd, K; Smith, LA; Weisheimer, A.; How good is an ensemble at capturing truth? Using bounding boxes for forecast evaluation. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society, 133, 1309--1325, [doi:10.1002/qj.111] Jul 2007
  • Judd, K; Smith, L. A.; Weisheimer, A.; How good is an ensemble an capturing truth? Using bounding boxes for forecast evaluation. Quarterly Journal Of The Royal Meteorological Society, 133 (626 A) , 1309-1325, 2007
  • le Treut, H.; Somerville, R.; Weisheimer, A.; Historical Overview of Climate Change Science In Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 4th Assessment Report, Working Group 1: The Physical Basis of Climate Change, pages 93--128, 2007
  • Morcrette, J; Bechtold, P; Beljaars, A; Weisheimer, A.; Recent Advances in Radiation Transfer Parametrizations. (Technical report), , 2007
  • Weisheimer, A.; Doblas-Reyes, FJ; Rogel, P; Keenlyside, N.; Balmaseda, M.; Murphy, J; Smith, D.; Collins, M.; Bhaskaran, B; Palmer, T.N.; Initialisation strategies for decadal hindcasts for the 1960-2005 period within the ENSEMBLES project. (Technical report), , 2007
  • Palmer, T.N.; Doblas-Reyes, FJ; Weisheimer, A.; Rodwell, M; Seasonal Forecast Datasets - A resource for Calibrating Regional Climate Change Projections?. Clivar Exchanges, 43, 6--7, 2007
  • Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T. N.; Erratum: "Changing frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures under global warming" (Geophysical Research Letters (2005) vol. 32 10.1029/2005GL023365). Geophysical Research Letters, 33 (7) , 2006
  • Palmer, T.N.; Doblas-Reyes, FJ; Hagedorn, R; Weisheimer, A.; Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: from basics to applications.. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci, 360, 1991--1998, [doi:10.1098/rstb.2005.1750] Nov 2005
  • Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T.N.; Changing frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 32 (L20721) , [doi:10.1029/2005gl023365] Oct 2005
  • Casty, C; Handorf, D; Raible, CC; Gonzalez-Rouco, JF; Weisheimer, A.; Xoplaki, E; Luterbacher, J; Dethloff, K; Wanner, H; Recurrent climate winter regimes in reconstructed and modelled 500 hPa geopotential height fields over the North Atlantic/European sector 1659-1990. Clim Dynam, 24, 809--822, [doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0496-8] Jun 2005
  • Weisheimer, A.; Smith, LA; Judd, K; A new view of seasonal forecast skill: bounding boxes from the DEMETER ensemble forecasts. Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology And Oceanography, 57, 265--279, [doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00106.x] May 2005
  • Palmer, T. N.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Hagedorn, R; Weisheimer, A.; Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: From basics to applications. Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 360 (1463) , 1991-1998, 2005
  • Judd, K; Smith, L; Weisheimer, A.; Gradient free descent: shadowing, and state estimation using limited derivative information. Physica D, 190, 153--166, [doi:10.1016/j.physd.2003.10.011] Apr 2004
  • Kunitsyn, V.; Zakharov, V.; Dethloff, K; Weisheimer, A.; Gerding, M.; Neuber, R; Rinke, A.; Hebestadt, I.; Improved radio occultation sounding of the Arctic atmosphere using simulations with a high resolution atmospheric model. Physics And Chemistry Of The Earth, 29 (2-3) , 277-286, 2004
  • Weisheimer, A.; Kurgansky, MV; Dethloff, K; Handorf, DR; Extratropical low-frequency variability in a three-level quasi-geostrophic atmospheric model with different spectral resolution. Journal Of Geophysical Research, 108 (4171) , [doi:10.1029/2001jd001282] Mar 2003
  • Weisheimer, A.; Handorf, D; Dethloff, K; On the structure and variability of atmospheric circulation regimes in coupled climate models. Atmospheric Science Letters, 2, LI--LIX, [doi:10.1006/asle.2001.0026] 2001
  • Mokhov, I. I.; Eliseev, A. V.; Handorf, D; Petukhov, V. K.; Dethloff, K; Weisheimer, A.; Khvorost{'}yanov, D. V.; North Atlantic oscillation: Diagnosis and simulation of decadal variability and its long-period evolution. Izvestiya - Atmospheric And Ocean Physics, 36 (5) , 555-565, 2000
  • Rex, M.; Dethloff, K; Handorf, D; Herber, A.; Lehmann, R.; Neuber, R; Notholt, J.; Rinke, A.; von der Gathen, P.; Weisheimer, A.; Gernandt, H.; Arctic and Antarctic ozone layer observations: Chemical and dynamical aspects of variability and long-term changes in the polar stratosphere. Polar Research, 19 (2) , 193-204, 2000
  • Weisheimer, A.; Niederfrequente Variabilität großräumiger atmosphärischer Zirkulationsstrukturen in spektralen Modellen niederer Ordnung. (Technical report), , [doi:10013/epic.10360.d001] 2000
  • Handorf, D; Petoukhov, V. K.; Dethloff, K; Eliseev, A. V.; Weisheimer, A.; Mokhov, I. I.; Decadal climate variability in a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model of moderate complexity. Journal Of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 104 (D22) , 27253-27275, 1999
  • Dethloff, K; Weisheimer, A.; Rinke, A.; Handorf, D; Kurgansky, M. V.; Jansen, W.; Maaß, P.; Hupfer, P.; Climate variability in a nonlinear atmosphere-like dynamical system. Journal Of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 103 (D20) , 25957-25966, 1998

Prizes

  • Research Fellowship, Wolfson College Oxford, December 2011
  • Buchan Prize of the Royal Meteorological Society "for papers containing the most important original contributions to meteorology", 2021, Royal Meteorological Society, May 2021

Achievements / Science Highlights

  • Improved model reproduces the 2003 European heat wave, February 2011
  • Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles, July 2011
  • Shortlisted and interviewed for L'Oreal-UNESCO For Women in Science Prize, June 2011
  • Shortlisted for the Science of Risk prize, November 2011

Engagements

  • Interview with a Jake Wallis Somins from The Telegraph about the For Women in Science prize for which I was shortlisted., June 2011

Policy advice

  • I am an expert reviewer of Chapter 11 of the 5th Assessment Report by IPCC., (International Organisations/Committees), December 2011
  • Expert reviewer for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (WG1 AR5), (Department of Energy and Climate Change), January 2012
  • I am a contributing author to Chapter 11 of the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC., (Department of Energy and Climate Change; Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs; Department for Business, Innovation and Skills; Environment Agency; European Union; International Organisations/Committees; Parliamentary Committees; Communities), December 2013