Leach, Dr Nicholas J

Research Fellow in Weather and Climate Predictability and Risk

Address

University of Oxford

Atmospheric Physics

Clarendon Laboratory

Parks Road

Oxford

OX1 3PU

 
ORCID
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4470-1813
twitter
@nickleach0
LinkedIn
https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-j-leach
email
Website
https://njleach.github.io/  
Picture of Dr Nicholas J Leach

Publications

  • Leach Nicholas; Ermis Shirin; Brocklehurst Aidan; Kumar Dhirendra; Georgios Alexandros; Braun Lukas; Shaffrey Len; The perfect storm: human influence on the loss potential of Eunice-like cyclones. [doi:10.22541/essoar.175096330.07547825/v1] Jun 2025
  • Leach Nicholas; Ermis Shirin; Fischer Erich M.; Vashti Ayim Olivia; Brocklehurst Aidan; Ng Kelvin; Leckebusch Gregor C.; “Boosted” realities: exploring the plausible limits of extreme weather through ensemble forecasts. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19673] Mar 2025
  • Starr Aidan; Woodhouse Sally; Leach Nicholas; Brennan James; Reveley Graham; Woodcock Claire; Ramesh Karthik; Stables Joe; Ramsamy Laura; Sullivan Patricia; Padilha Victor Luis; Estimates of labour productivity loss from climate model projections of extreme heat: Implications for financial services  . [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6084] Mar 2025
  • Ayim Olivia Vashti; Allen Myles; Leach Nicholas; From Weather to Climate: Using Medium-Range Forecasts to Quantify Long-Term Trends in Extreme Events. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18112] Mar 2025
  • Ermis Shirin; Thompson Vikki; Leach Nicholas; de Vries Hylke; Lenderink Geert; Zhou Lynn; Hope Pandora; Clarke Ben; Kew Sarah; Sparrow S.; Lott F. C.; Weisheimer A.; A comparison of storyline attribution methods for a midlatitude cyclone. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4522] Mar 2025
  • Ramesh Karthik; Ramsamy Laura; Sullivan Patricia; Leach Nicholas; Padilha Victor; Reveley Graham; Woodhouse Sally; Stables Joe; Brennan James; Starr Aidan; Woodcock Claire; Machine Learning to augment global flood modelling in ungauged basins. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu25-7069] Mar 2025
  • Sagoo Navjit; Leach Nicholas; Exploring how physical climate storylines and narratives impact private stakeholder behaviour. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20300] Mar 2025
  • Leach Nicholas; Ermis Shirin; Brocklehurst Aidan; Kumar Dhirendra; Georgiadis Alexandros; Braun Lukas; Shaffrey Len C.; The perfect storm: loss potential of Eunice-like cyclones in a counterfactual climate. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6589] Mar 2025
  • Reveley Graham; Brennan James; Woodhouse Sally; Ramsamy Laura; Leach Nicholas; Sullivan Patricia; Davies Jonathan; Stables Joe; Climate services for finance, lessons learned and feedback for the public sector. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15905] Jan 2025
  • Woodhouse Sally; Leach Nicholas; Davies Jonathan J.; Brennan James; Climate Risk Projections with Pattern Scaling. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu24-11579] Jan 2025
  • Mitchell Dann M.; Shapland Chin Yang; Lo Eunice; Tilling Kate; Leach Nicholas; Novel methods needed to attribute human health impacts of climate change. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu24-4029] Jan 2025
  • Cotterill Daniel; Mitchell Dann M.; Stott Peter; Bates Paul; Leach Nicholas; Attributing the influence of climate change on the 2022 Pakistan floods . [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu24-3960] Jan 2025
  • Stables Joe; Reverly Graham; Brennan James; Woodhouse Sally; Leach Nicholas; Ramsamy Laura; Sullivan Patricia; Davies Jonathan; Challenges in quantifying physical risk to assets globally. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu24-19847] Jan 2025
  • Ermis Shirin; Leach Nicholas; Sparrow S.; Lott F. C.; Weisheimer Antje; Forecast-based attribution for midlatitude cyclones. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1978] Jan 2025
  • Smith Chris; Cummins Donald P.; Fredriksen Hege-Beate; Nicholls Zebedee R.J.; Meinshausen Malte Alexander; Allen Myles; Jenkins Stuart; Leach Nicholas; Mathison Camilla; Partanen Antti-Ilari; fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining, and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections. Geoscientific Model Development, 17 (23) , 8569–8592, [doi:10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024] Dec 2024
  • Lee Donghyun; Sparrow Sarah; Leach Nicholas; Osprey S. M.; Lee Jinah; Allen Myles; The Attribution of February Extremes over North America: A Forecast-Based Storyline Study. Journal Of Climate, 37 (19) , 5073–5089, [doi:10.1175/jcli-d-24-0074.1] Oct 2024
  • Leach Nicholas; Roberts Christopher D.; Aengenheyster Matthias; Heathcote Daniel; Mitchell Dann M.; Thompson Vikki; Palmer Tim; Weisheimer A.; Allen Myles R.; Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts. Nature Communications, 15 (1) , [doi:10.1038/s41467-024-48280-7] May 2024
  • Ermis Shirin; Leach Nicholas; Lott F. C.; Sparrow S.; Weisheimer A.; Event attribution of a midlatitude windstorm using ensemble weather forecasts. Environmental Research: Climate, 3 (3) , 035001, [doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ad4200] May 2024
  • Smith Chris; Cummins Donald P.; Fredriksen Hege-Beate; Nicholls Zebedee R.J.; Meinshausen Malte Alexander; Allen Myles; Jenkins Stuart; Leach Nicholas; Mathison Camilla; Partanen Antti-Ilari; Supplementary material to “fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections”. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-2024-708-supplement] Apr 2024
  • Smith Chris; Cummins Donald P.; Fredriksen Hege-Beate; Nicholls Zebedee R.J.; Meinshausen Malte Alexander; Allen Myles; Jenkins Stuart; Leach Nicholas; Mathison Camilla; Partanen Antti-Ilari; fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-2024-708] Apr 2024
  • Leach Nicholas; Ermis Shirin; Vashti Ayim Olivia; Sparrow S.; Lott F. C.; Zhou Linjing; Hope Pandora; Mitchell Dann M.; Weisheimer A.; Allen Myles; Towards an operational forecast-based attribution system - beyond isolated events. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu24-20081] Mar 2024
  • Leach Nicholas; Messori Gabriele; Crawford Alex; Wada Ryota; Woodhouse Sally; Burke Claire; Severe windstorm projections for Europe. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8224] May 2023
  • Woodhouse Sally; Burke Claire; Leach Nicholas; Brennan James; Reveley Graham; Ramsamy Laura; Mitchell Hamish; Climate X: Making climate risk data useful and usable for the financial sector. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8097] May 2023
  • Brennan James; Burke Claire; Reveley Graham; Woodhouse Sally; Mitchell Hamish; Leach Nicholas; Ramsamy Laura; Towards global prediction of fire risk in a changing climate. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8082] May 2023
  • Burke Claire; Woodhouse Sally; Leach Nicholas; Brennan James; Reveley Graham; Ramsamy Laura; Mitchell Hamish; Kluza Kamil; Climate services for finance, lessons learned and feedback for the public sector. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5880] May 2023
  • Floess Emily; Grieshop Andrew; Puzzolo Elisa; Pope Dan; Leach Nicholas; Smith Christopher J.; Gill-Wiehl Annelise; Landesman Katherine; Bailis Rob; Scaling up gas and electric cooking in low- and middle-income countries: climate threat or mitigation strategy with co-benefits?. Environmental Research Letters, 18 (3) , 034010, [doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acb501] Feb 2023
  • Leach Nicholas; Roberts Christopher; Heathcote Daniel; Mitchell Dann; Thompson Vikki; Palmer Tim; Weisheimer A.; Allen Myles; Reliable heatwave attribution based on successful operational weather forecasts. [doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1868647/v1] Aug 2022
  • Leach Nicholas; Watson Peter A. G.; Sparrow S.; Wallom David C. H.; Sexton David M. H.; Generating samples of extreme winters to support climate adaptation. Weather And Climate Extremes, 36, 100419, [doi:10.1016/j.wace.2022.100419] Jun 2022
  • Watson Peter; Sparrow S.; Ingram William; Wilson Simon; Zappa Giuseppe; Bevacqua Emanuele; Leach Nicholas; Sexton David M. H.; Jones Richard; Drouard Marie; Mitchell Daniel; Wallom David; Woollings Tim; Allen Myles; Understanding extreme events with multi-thousand member high-resolution global atmospheric simulations. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5900] Mar 2022
  • Leach Nicholas; Roberts Chris; Palmer Tim; Allen Myles R.; Weisheimer A.; Towards forecast-based attribution of isolated extreme events: perturbed initial condition simulations of the Pacific Northwest heatwave. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5949] Mar 2022
  • Leach Nicholas; Weisheimer A.; Allen Myles R.; Palmer Tim; Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability. Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences, 118 (49) , e2112087118, [doi:10.1073/pnas.2112087118] Nov 2021
  • Leach Nicholas; Watson Peter A. G.; Sparrow S.; Wallom David C. H.; Sexton David M. H.; Generating samples of extreme winters to support climate adaptation. [doi:10.1002/essoar.10508424.1] Oct 2021
  • Leach Nicholas; Jenkins Stuart; Nicholls Zebedee R.J.; Smith Christopher J.; Lynch John; Cain Michelle; Walsh Tristram; Wu Bill; Tsutsui Junichi; Allen Myles R.; FaIRv2.0.0: a generalized impulse response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration. Geoscientific Model Development, 14 (5) , 3007–3036, [doi:10.5194/gmd-14-3007-2021] May 2021
  • Leach Nicholas; Weisheimer A.; Allen Myles; Palmer Timothy; Forecast-based attribution of a winter heatwave within the limit of predictability. [doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5731] Mar 2021
  • Nicholls Zebedee R.J.; Meinshausen Malte Alexander; Lewis Jared; Rojas Corradi Maisa; Dorheim Kalyn; Gasser Thomas; Gieseke Robert; Hope Austin Patrick; Leach Nicholas; McBride Laura Anne; Quilcaille Yann; Rogelj Joeri; Salawitch Ross J.; Samset Bjørn H.; Sandstad Marit; Shiklomanov Alexey N; Skeie R.; Smith Christopher J.; Smith Steve; SU Xuanming; Tsutsui Junichi; Vega-Westhoff Benjamin Aaron; Woodard Dawn; Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesising Earth system knowledge for probabilistic climate projections. [doi:10.1002/essoar.10504793.2] Mar 2021
  • Leach Nicholas; Jenkins Stuart; Nicholls Zebedee R.J.; Smith Christopher J.; Lynch John; Cain Michelle; Walsh Tristram; Wu Bill; Tsutsui Junichi; Allen Myles R.; Supplementary material to “FaIRv2.0.0: a generalised impulse-response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration”. [doi:10.5194/gmd-2020-390-supplement] Nov 2020
  • Leach Nicholas; Jenkins Stuart; Nicholls Zebedee R.J.; Smith Christopher J.; Lynch John; Cain Michelle; Walsh Tristram; Wu Bill; Tsutsui Junichi; Allen Myles R.; FaIRv2.0.0: a generalised impulse-response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration. [doi:10.5194/gmd-2020-390] Nov 2020
  • Nicholls Zebedee R.J.; Meinshausen Malte Alexander; Lewis Jared; Rojas Corradi Maisa; Dorheim Kalyn; Gasser Thomas; Gieseke Robert; Hope Austin Patrick; Leach Nicholas; McBride Laura Anne; Quilcaille Yann; Rogelj Joeri; Salawitch Ross J.; Samset Bjørn H.; Sandstad Marit; Shiklomanov Alexey N; Skeie R.; Smith Christopher J.; Smith Steve; SU Xuanming; Tsutsui Junichi; Vega-Westhoff Benjamin Aaron; Woodward Dawn; Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesising Earth system knowledge for probabilistic climate projections. [doi:10.1002/essoar.10504793.1] Nov 2020
  • Nicholls Zebedee R.J.; Meinshausen Malte; Lewis Jared; Gieseke Robert; Dommenget Dietmar; Dorheim Kalyn; Fan Chen-Shuo; Fuglestvedt J. S.; Gasser Thomas; Golüke Ulrich; Goodwin Philip; Hartin Corinne; Hope Austin Patrick; Kriegler Elmar; Leach Nicholas; Marchegiani Davide; McBride Laura A.; Quilcaille Yann; Rogelj Joeri; Salawitch Ross J.; Samset Bjørn H.; Sandstad Marit; Shiklomanov Alexey N; Skeie R.; Smith Christopher J.; Smith Steve; Tanaka Katsumasa; Tsutsui Junichi; Xie Zhiang; Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response. Geoscientific Model Development, 13 (11) , 5175–5190, [doi:10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020] Oct 2020
  • Leach Nicholas; Reply to review 3. [doi:10.5194/gmd-2019-379-ac4] Aug 2020
  • Leach Nicholas; Reply to Robert Gieseke. [doi:10.5194/gmd-2019-379-ac3] Aug 2020
  • Leach Nicholas; Reply to review 2. [doi:10.5194/gmd-2019-379-ac2] Aug 2020
  • Leach Nicholas; Reply to William Collins. [doi:10.5194/gmd-2019-379-ac1] Aug 2020
  • Leach Nicholas; Nicholls Zebedee R.J.; Jenkins Stuart; Smith Christopher J.; Lynch John; Cain Michelle; Wu Bill; Tsutsui Junichi; Allen Myles R.; GIR v1.0.0: a generalised impulse-response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration. [doi:10.5194/gmd-2019-379] Jan 2020